RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Thursday 12/24/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 18.8% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 73.5% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com 

Unloading at SPX 1124

SGS is Long.

I am unloading RTS 20091015 Long Portfolio at SPX 1124 or higher. 


opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 12/18/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 13.7% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 68.3% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 12/11/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 13.8% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 68.4% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

 

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 12/04/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 12.4% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 67.0% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling TJX and Buying CI on Friday 12/4 at Open

SGS is Long.

RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio is up around 18%.  Full update tomorrow.

RTS is selling TJX and buying CI in its place tomorrow Friday 12/4/2009 at the open.


opader@gmail.com

2009 is Coming to an End

SGS is Long.

For the last 6 months, SPX has peaked at a new high near the middle of the month, then sold off and hitting its cycle low near the end of month or the beginning of the next month. This cycle is being repeated for November as well. What's important is that all mid-month highs are new highs (all higher highs) while end-month / beginning-month lows are just cycle lows (all higher lows). So, there is an excellent chance that we see a new cycle low next week (probably in low 1070's, around 50 D-SMA) and the rally resuming to make a new high in SPX probably by mid to late December.

My plan is to sell all positions in  RTS 20091015 Long Portfolio on the next cycle high, I think we probably see 113X on SPX by mid or late December.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 11/27/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 13.6% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 68.2% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 11/20/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 13.8% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 68.4% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 11/13/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 14.2% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 68.8% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

(edited on 11/16/09 to correct errors in table below, thanks Ben)

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 11/06/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 8.3% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return =62.9% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

(edited on 11/16/09 to correct errors in table below, thanks Ben)

RTS Selling GS and Buying CLF on Friday 11/6 at Open

SGS is Long.
RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio is up around 13%.  Full update tomorrow.

RTS is selling GS and buying CLF in its place tomorrow Friday 11/6/2009 at the open.


opader@gmail.com

What's Happening? ..... Market Oversold

Market is very over sold.  A recovery should start next week specially as we enter into a seasonably strong period.  Having said that, one cannot ignore the fact that an oversold condition always preludes a major crash.  So, is (A) Market going to recover and continue to go higher, or (B) is this the beginning of another crash to retest the lows of last March?  No one can answer that question with total certainty.  It's a question of probabilities.  To me (A) is more probable than (B) because of many reasons.  The main reason is that Government and Wall Street will make sure a crash does not happen.  At this point in the US and global economy, another stock market crash would bring on an unprecedented level of financial chaos which would be much worse than what we experienced from October 2008 to March 2009.  No one wants that, but it doesn't mean that it could never happen.

This pull back looks like a typical pull back of a bull market. Steep, but short in length. SGS is still Long, but if there is no recovery next week, it will go Short.  My plan is to follow my signal.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling CNX and Buying MSFT on Monday 11/2 at Open

SGS is Long.

RTS is selling CNX and buying MSFT in its place on Monday 11/2/2009 at the open.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/30/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 27.4% (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 56.7% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling AEM and Buying CAT on Friday 10/30 at Open

SGS is Long.
RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio is up around 12%.

RTS is selling AEM and buying CAT in its place tomorrow Friday 10/30/2009 at the open.


opader@gmail.com

SPX Closed Below its 50 D-SMA

S&P 500 closed slightly below its 50 Day Simple Moving Average (D-SMA) today.   Market will probably make a sharp move tomorrow and / or Friday.  The direction of the move is going to depend on how good or bad GDP and Unemployment numbers are.

SGS is long so my plan is to ride this out.  I think the numbers aren't going to be as bad as Market fears. 

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling PRU and Buying AMZN on Wed 10/28 at Open

SGS is Long, but moving toward going short.

RTS sold PRU and bought AMZN in its place today Wednesday 10/28/2009 at the open. I didn't get a chance to run the program until a few minutes ago.  I'm planning to sell PRU and buy AMZN tomorrow at the open.

opader@gmail.com

Bull Run In Trouble?

Bull run in trouble?  I don't think so, at least not as long as SPX is above its 50 D-SMA.  A solid close below 50 D-SMA would be very negative.

The rolling one year return, which is looked at by investors, is going to get better and better for all indices, nearly all stocks and mutual funds between now and early March 2010. For example, if SPX remains flat between now and early March 2010, its one year performance would still increase by 25%.  This phenomena will cause more and more investors who are sitting on the side line to come in and buy the dips, specially as we close October and enter into a seasonably strong period of the year.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/23/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 37.3 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 66.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/16/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 34.2 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 63.5% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

SPX Solidly Closed Above 1076 Today

SGS is Long.

I'm going in tomorrow (Thr 10/15/09) at the open with equal $ on:

1. TCK
2. HIG
3. LNC
4. MEE
5. FAS
6. IP
7. TNA
8. DOW
9. XL
10. COF

opader@gmail.com

SPX at 1076

SGS is Long.

SPX closed at 1076.19 today.  I'm going to give one more day to this break out and see if Market can push higher with heavier volume and better breath.  I think we might be in for a one or two days of profit taking.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/9/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 34.5 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 63.8% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

The Plan to Get Back In

 SGS is Long.

I cashed out my trading account on 9/17 as SPX hit 1074 itraday per plan outlined earlier.  I've been sitting on the sideline and hoping for a nice pull back.  Well, it didn't happen and the likelihood of it happening is slim now.

My plan is get back in if SPX closes at 1076 or better.  I'll buy RTS Top 10 as of close of the same day as SPX closes at 1076 or better.  More on the plan if SPX closes at 1076 or better.

Questions / Comments: Please email me at opader@gmail.com .

RTS Selling STI and Buying AEM on Thursday 10/8 at Open

SGS is Long.


RTS is selling STI and buying AEM in its place on Thursday 10/8/2009 at the open.  RTS is up around 13% ( Full update on Friday).

Questions / Comments: Please email me at opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/2/2009

SGS is Long.
RTS One Year-ish Return = 26.3 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 55.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

RTS Selling CI and Buying CNX on Thursday 10/1 at Open

SGS is Long.
RTS One Year-ish Return = 30.7% (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 59.1% (11/7/2007 to Present)

RTS is selling CI and buying CNX in its place on Thursday 10/1/2009 at the open. Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (past RTS portfolios):

RTS Selling RIMM and Buying AXP on Monday 9/28 at Open

SGS is Long.
RTS One Year-ish Return = 28.4% (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 57.7% (11/7/2007 to Present)

RTS is selling RIMM and buying AXP in its place on Monday 9/28/2009 at the open. Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (past RTS portfolios):

Reverse H&S Objective for SPX Was Met on 9/17/2009

SGS is Long.
RTS One Year Return = 36.3% (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 65.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Pofrtfolio ............................ Past RTS Portfolios

By all measures including market breath, advance/decline line, new highs and new lows, we're seeing a very strong bull run that very likely will continue well into next year. Government stimulus combined with Fed's relaxed monetary policy are working. Market has picked up momentum and is steaming forward with financial and technology sectors leading the way.

S&P500 Index (SPX) reached mid 1070's last Thursday and satisfied the objective of a Reverse Head and Shoulders (H&S) chart formation which was confirmed for the first time on 5/1/2009, and re-confirmed as SPX strongly bounced off of its neck line on 7/13/2009. Please see chart below:



After achieving the Reverse H&S objective ("Target" line on chart above), the chances of Market going into a short period of rest and possibly a minor sell off is substantially more than continuing to move higher, especially as we're entering a seasonably weak period of the year.

Per my plan, I cashed out at SPX >= 1074 last Thursday. I'm currently formulating a plan to open long positions. I'm going to wait for a few days and see if there's a pull back and how steep it might get. More on that later.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 9/18/2009

SGS is Long.
RTS One Year Return = 36.3% (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 65.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

Going into Cash

SGS is Long.
RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio is up around 16% as of close of 9/16/09.

I'm going to close (sell) all my long positions that I opened (bought) at SPX 1001 (SPY, QQQQ and IMW) at SPX >= 1074.

I'll post this weekend why I'm doing this.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 9/11/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year Return = 31.5% (9/5/2008 to Present)

RTS Total Return = 60.8% (11/07/2007 to Present)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Previous RTS Portfolios):

The Mother of All Bull Markets?

SGS is Long.

S&P500 (SPX) has risen about 53% since March lows. Except for the financial sectors, there are no other sectors matching the performance of that index. I think this occurrence, namely SPX out performing all but one or two sectors in the course of last six months, is unprecedented in the last 30 years. I find this puzzling and can't find an explanation for it, except that SPX (and other major indices) are artificially pushed up in hope of making the market participants (namely baby boomers) more confident about their financial outlook. Without that confidence, the US economy is doomed and could spiral back down into a very deep and long recession or possibly a depression.

The fear of a depression substantially out weighs any near or immediate term inflation concerns, hence justifying flooding the economy with more and more money. I think this policy which was put in place in late 2008, will be continued for the foreseeable future. There is no other option, at least no relatively painless one.

"Trend is your friend", and this bull trend very likely will continue for a while and perhaps could become the biggest bull run of all time. Looking at the monthly chart of SPX below, the index closed August near its recovery high as was expected due to the symmetrical nature of this recovery. The likelihood of this symmetrical up trend continuing is high and SPX reaching 1200 to 1300 by end of this year is a good probability. That is about 18% to 28% gain from here to end of the year.


Since March lows it has been difficult if not impossible, to outperform SPX and I think this trend will very likely continue. That's why I chose to put RTS 10 stock strategy on hold for now and go with the indices. Per plan outlined earlier, I put 50% of my capital on the table and bought SPY (60%), QQQQ (20%) and IWM (20%) last Tuesday (9/1/2009) as SPX dropped to 1001 intraday.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 9/4/2009

SGS is long.

RTS Total Return From 11/07/2007 To Present = 55.7%

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Previous RTS Portfolios):

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 8/28/2009

SGS is long.

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Previous RTS Portfolios):

RTS selling SGP and buying PRU in its place on Fri 8/28/09

SGS is long.

RTS is selling SGP and buying PRU at the open tomorrow Friday August 28.

I closed all my long positions at SPX 999 on August 12. I've been waiting for a pull back to get back in. I was hoping for a correction to mid 900, but I don't think that's going to happen.

For now, I think SPX 1001 is good target to get back in, we might see it soon. My plan is to load up 50% once SPX sells off to 1001, then double down at 981 if we get there. I'm not going to buy the top 10 RTS stocks this time, I'm going with the indices. I'll buy 60% SPY, 20% QQQQ and 20% IWM (iShares Russel 2000 ETF). Once loaded, my stop loss would be SPX closing below its 50 D-SMA.

I'll post later why I'm not going with the top 10.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 8/21/2009

SGS is long.

SPX closed at above 1026 (1026.13) on Friday. Per plan I'm going to buy the top 10 (as of close of Friday) long sometimes this week. I'll post my exact plan later.

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Previous RTS Portfolios):

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 8/14/2009

SGS is long.

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Previous RTS Portfolios):

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 8/12/2009

SGS is long.

I closed all my long positions at SPX 999 yesterday. I'm waiting for a pull back to mid 900 to get back in long. If this rally continues to SPX 1026 and higher, I would also consider getting back in long again.

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Previous RTS Portfolios) :

Closing All Long Positions at SPX 999 or Higher

SGS is Long.

SPX 1019 didn't happen (SPX got as high as 1018 last Friday, very close but no cigar) and I'm still long on my 10 stocks. My new target to sell is SPX 999. I think there is a good chance that SPX goes down to mid to low 900 this month. I'll use that sell off to get back in long. Other possibility is that SPX continues to go higher after closing above 1000 for the second time. In that case, I'll look to get back in long at SPX 1026 or better.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 8/7/2009

SGS is long.

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Previous RTS Portfolios)

RTS sold AMZN and bought STI in its place on Wed 8/5/09

SGS is long.

RTS sold AMZN and bought STI at open today Wed 8/5/09.

I didn't get a chance to do that today. I'm selling AMZN and buying STI at open tomorrow Thr 8/6/09.

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Previous RTS Portfolios):

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 7/31/2009

SGS is long.

My plan is to close all positions at SPX 1019.

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Previous RTS Portfolios)

RTS selling MS and buying COF in its place on Tue 7/28/09

SGS is long.

RTS is selling MS and buying COF at open tomorrow Tuesday July 28.

I'm selling MS and buying COF.

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Previous RTS Portfolios)

My First Post -- Where Are We Going?

This is my very first post. Let's start with my very last email (no more emails from me, I'll update this Blog at least once a week):

Date: Fri, 10 Jul 2009 20:05:28 -0700
Subject: SGS is still Long ...... Market doing OK ........

SGS is still long, but blinking short. Both RTS 20090326 and SG RTS 20090326 Long Portfolios have been updated.

I think Market is in a good shape. SPX after gaining 43.5% since the March bottom, has shed about 12% of its gain which is quite typical of a strong bull market. SPX has come to a very formidable support at 880 (thin brown line) which is not only the Neck Line for two H&S patterns (a Bottom H&S shown in blue and a more recent Top H&S shown in red), but also the 200 D-SMA. I think this support will hold and SPX will resume its advance (green arrow). If we close solidly below this support, we very likely follow the red arrow back down to 810 which happens to be the 50% retracement line for the gain since March lows. I doubt very much if we go any lower.












The question is how real is this rally and how far can it continue. I think this rally is very real and it'll very likely keep going for a long time. Everyone is behind this rally in one way or another. That includes, the Government (Fed, White House, Treasury, Congress, etc.), Wall Street (trading firms, analysts, etc.), companies with their cooked up books, the mainstream media (Jimbo the clown included), foreign governments and their central bankers, etc, etc, etc.

It seems to me the "plan / policy" is to inflate our way out of the current down turn. In other words, we're creating another bubble (plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose), but this time we have nothing to inflate with, but Inflation itself. (rhymes with "we have nothing to fear, but Fear itself"). This, however might turn out to be the mother of all bubbles and it has a really good chance of working as long as it doesn't pop anytime soon. The plan (more like hope) is to let the air out slowly after the economy starts to grow and maintains its growth for a while.

In early 2008 I sent an email to my friends warning them about the bear market ahead. Attached to it was the monthly SPX chart shown below:












I'm going back to the same monthly SPX chart (updated as of last Friday):












SPX is recovering in a very symmetric fashion and hence giving us the V-shape recovery we like. (a nice "V", "V like victory", I'm glad we're getting something for all the money we've dumped into this). The candle stick for this August is going to be like the candle stick of last October (stick 5, left side of SYM) expect it'll be a white one. Hence, August is going to be volatile like last October, but more tame.

I think SPX 1000+ is going to be a tough resistance to over come. Market very likely has to try to break through it a few times (at least twice), but I think we'll have a successful breakout and we'll close August nicely up. My guess at this point is that by end of August we could see SPX near the 23 M-EMA line (thick green) at or about 1080, but we might have to visit mid 900 on our way there. As T. Boone Pickens would have said, 950 before 1080.

My plan is to sell all my positions at SPX 1019 (there's a good chance we get there next week or the first week of August) and try to re-enter in mid 900 probably sometimes in mid to late August.

Have a nice week.