What's Happening? ..... Market Oversold

Market is very over sold.  A recovery should start next week specially as we enter into a seasonably strong period.  Having said that, one cannot ignore the fact that an oversold condition always preludes a major crash.  So, is (A) Market going to recover and continue to go higher, or (B) is this the beginning of another crash to retest the lows of last March?  No one can answer that question with total certainty.  It's a question of probabilities.  To me (A) is more probable than (B) because of many reasons.  The main reason is that Government and Wall Street will make sure a crash does not happen.  At this point in the US and global economy, another stock market crash would bring on an unprecedented level of financial chaos which would be much worse than what we experienced from October 2008 to March 2009.  No one wants that, but it doesn't mean that it could never happen.

This pull back looks like a typical pull back of a bull market. Steep, but short in length. SGS is still Long, but if there is no recovery next week, it will go Short.  My plan is to follow my signal.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling CNX and Buying MSFT on Monday 11/2 at Open

SGS is Long.

RTS is selling CNX and buying MSFT in its place on Monday 11/2/2009 at the open.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/30/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 27.4% (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 56.7% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling AEM and Buying CAT on Friday 10/30 at Open

SGS is Long.
RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio is up around 12%.

RTS is selling AEM and buying CAT in its place tomorrow Friday 10/30/2009 at the open.


opader@gmail.com

SPX Closed Below its 50 D-SMA

S&P 500 closed slightly below its 50 Day Simple Moving Average (D-SMA) today.   Market will probably make a sharp move tomorrow and / or Friday.  The direction of the move is going to depend on how good or bad GDP and Unemployment numbers are.

SGS is long so my plan is to ride this out.  I think the numbers aren't going to be as bad as Market fears. 

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling PRU and Buying AMZN on Wed 10/28 at Open

SGS is Long, but moving toward going short.

RTS sold PRU and bought AMZN in its place today Wednesday 10/28/2009 at the open. I didn't get a chance to run the program until a few minutes ago.  I'm planning to sell PRU and buy AMZN tomorrow at the open.

opader@gmail.com

Bull Run In Trouble?

Bull run in trouble?  I don't think so, at least not as long as SPX is above its 50 D-SMA.  A solid close below 50 D-SMA would be very negative.

The rolling one year return, which is looked at by investors, is going to get better and better for all indices, nearly all stocks and mutual funds between now and early March 2010. For example, if SPX remains flat between now and early March 2010, its one year performance would still increase by 25%.  This phenomena will cause more and more investors who are sitting on the side line to come in and buy the dips, specially as we close October and enter into a seasonably strong period of the year.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/23/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 37.3 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 66.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/16/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 34.2 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 63.5% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

SPX Solidly Closed Above 1076 Today

SGS is Long.

I'm going in tomorrow (Thr 10/15/09) at the open with equal $ on:

1. TCK
2. HIG
3. LNC
4. MEE
5. FAS
6. IP
7. TNA
8. DOW
9. XL
10. COF

opader@gmail.com

SPX at 1076

SGS is Long.

SPX closed at 1076.19 today.  I'm going to give one more day to this break out and see if Market can push higher with heavier volume and better breath.  I think we might be in for a one or two days of profit taking.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/9/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 34.5 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 63.8% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

The Plan to Get Back In

 SGS is Long.

I cashed out my trading account on 9/17 as SPX hit 1074 itraday per plan outlined earlier.  I've been sitting on the sideline and hoping for a nice pull back.  Well, it didn't happen and the likelihood of it happening is slim now.

My plan is get back in if SPX closes at 1076 or better.  I'll buy RTS Top 10 as of close of the same day as SPX closes at 1076 or better.  More on the plan if SPX closes at 1076 or better.

Questions / Comments: Please email me at opader@gmail.com .

RTS Selling STI and Buying AEM on Thursday 10/8 at Open

SGS is Long.


RTS is selling STI and buying AEM in its place on Thursday 10/8/2009 at the open.  RTS is up around 13% ( Full update on Friday).

Questions / Comments: Please email me at opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/2/2009

SGS is Long.
RTS One Year-ish Return = 26.3 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 55.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):