Thursday, December 30, 2010

RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio is Closed Tomorrow At Open

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio


End of year tax selling will very likely accelerate tomorrow through the first week or two of January.

Tomorrow is the end of the month, quarter and year.  RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio will be closed tomorrow at the open.  RTS will open a new long portfolio on Monday Jan 3 at the open.  I'll post more on that this weekend.  I closed my LT and IT shortly after open today.  I will close my ST near close tomorrow.

Overall, 2010 was a fantastic year.  Happy New Year.

Face Book

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

1262.60 Was Very Likely 2010 High for SPX

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio

1265 was my SPX target for 2010, we got 1262.50 today, close enough.

Market is topping out and a typical bull market correction could start as early as tomorrow imo.   I think selling very likely accelerates in the first two weeks of January as people sell to realize their 2010 gains in 2011 and hence deferring their cap. gain taxes to 2012.

Face Book
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Tomorrow Last Chance For SPX To Hit 1265

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio
Intraday SPX has a good chance to hit 1265 (probably early in the day) tomorrow.

Face Book
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice 

Monday, December 27, 2010

SPX 1265 Still Looks Good As High For This Year

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio
Face Book  (I post frequently on my wall during the day)opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Possible Sell Off Early Tomorrow, But SPX Very Likely Sets New High's This Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio


opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Friday, December 24, 2010

RTS Selling BRCM and Buying FCX on Monday 12/27/10 at Open

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio

In RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio, RTS is selling BRCM and buying FCX in its place on Monday 12/27/10  at the open.  RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio will be cashed out on last trading of the current quarter (Dec 31) at the open.  A new long portfolio will be opened on January 3, 2011 at the open.

SPX looks good, very likely will hit 1265 on Monday. I believe that to be the high, give or take a couple of points, for 2010.  More on this on Sunday.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.


opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

SPX 1265 Very Likely High For 2010

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio

SPX is about to tag its upper price channel at 1265 tomorrow.  Since the start of the latest bull leg (Dec. 1), a sell off has followed in all three occurrences where SPX penetrated its 13 EMA + 2% vertical shift boundary.  Considering usual holiday reversals and how far SPX has come since its recent low (better than 7% since Nov. 30), a sell off and a move back to the lower price channel is very likely over the course of remaining 2010 trading days.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

All Major Indices (Leaders and Followers) At 52 Week High

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio

I believe SPX will approach 1270 over the course of the next few days.  1269 would be a nice place to close all long positions, take profit and call it a year.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Monday, December 20, 2010

SPX Range Bound 1241 ..... 1254

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio


Today SPX tested its Friday's low, then rallied, broke out of its bull flag formation and closed above it.  I still think a retest of the primary up trend line is very probable this week.  Tomorrow we could see SPX dips lower to low 1240's before rallying up to lower to mid 1250's.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Monday & Tuesday Possible Buying Opportunities

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio


A pull back early next week is very likely, but SPX is set to put in new highs before the end of year imo.  Barring a major financial or political event, SPX will be trading in lower 1300 by mid Jan. 2011.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Bull Flags On All Major Indices ... Bull Run Should Resume

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio


Bull flags are well formed on all major indices now.  Transportation Index, the leader, broke out of its bull flag formation today, other indices will very likely follow tomorrow or early next week.  SPX looks good and bull run could resume as early as tomorrow.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

The Big Fight Is On For Tomorrow

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio

I think bulls have the upper hand and will win the fight tomorrow.  I expect SPX to bounce off it lower price channel line and resume its advance.  A close below that line, however, would be bearish which would very likely lead SPX to more selling on Friday.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Time To Hammer Down Them Puts

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio

I believe there are still  many out there who have totally bought into "doom and gloom" and hence are long in index puts.  Big Money will try pushing indices higher before Friday to render those puts he's sold short worthless.
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Monday, December 13, 2010

Trend Is Intact

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio

Despite the sell off near close today, SPX and all other major indices look great.



This week being a quadruple witching week, I expect more volitle sessions possibly tomorrow or Wedenesday.  SPX might sell off intraday to mid to lower 1220's.   Those levels would be great entry points to go long for a LT (positions held from weeks to months) or IT portfolio (positions held from days to weeks).

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Saturday, December 11, 2010

How Bullish Am I? Very And Here's Why

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio


Technically:
  • All major indices are at their 52 week high.
  • All indices are solidly above their 50D and 200D SMA's.
  • All major indices are in well defined up trending price channels.
  • Daily Golden Cross (50D SMA crossing above 200D SMA) has been accomplished and back tested in all major indices.
  • Weekly Golden Cross (50W SMA crossing above 200W SMA) has been accomplished in Transportation, Nasdaq, Russel (all leaders) and SP500 (Dow is about to do it soon).
  • Small Caps are leading, not lagging.  This means we're still in early to mid stages of a powerful bull run which will continue for foreseeable future.
  • Number of  stocks hitting their 52 week high are at levels commensurate with new highs in indices.
  • Number of stocks hitting their 52 week low are at very low level.
Fundamentally:
  • Record cash on the sideline by individuals and companies (Fed is trying to get these people and companies to put that cash to work by creating inflation via depreciation of US dollar.  When there is inflation money is more readily exposed to risk.  Without inflation, money stays put).
  • Companies in general are more lean and mean after shedding record number of employees.  Productivity has not suffered due to heavy use of technology.  Solid earnings are expected for nearly all companies as they start to report early next year.
  • Bush tax cuts will be extended which would encourage more investment in stocks, specially those paying dividend.
  • Bond yields cannot go any lower, so gain in investing in bonds is very limited.  Money is migrating and will continue to migrate from bonds and fixed income instruments  to more speculative markets.
If you care to comment on my latest post, please do so on my facebook wall.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Thursday, December 9, 2010

SPX Looks Excellent

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio


Past RTS Portfolios
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

SPX Looks Good

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010).
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio

Past RTS Portfoliosopader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Rally Likely Resume As Early As Tomorrow ... Dips Are Aggessively Bought

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010).
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio

Past RTS Portfoliosopader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Monday, December 6, 2010

Tomorrow Possibly A Nice Big Green Day

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010).
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio 

SPX very likely will over come the intermediate resistance (1222 - 1224) and set a new 52 week high as RUT and Nasdaq Comp did today.

Past RTS Portfolios
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Market is OK ....

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010).
RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio 

Market is in OK shape, the rally should continue to end of this year / early next year.  It'll be quite volatile, but I believe dips are buying opportunities.


Past RTS Portfolios
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Saturday, December 4, 2010

VSG Trading Portfolios

RTS Current Portfolio 
Rank and Trade System Current Portfolio

RTS Past Portfolios And Performance 
Rank and Trade System Past Portfolios

My ST Position Trading Portfolios 
Short Term (hours to days, but not more than a week) Position Trading.

My IT Position Trading Portfolios
Intermediate Term (days to weeks, but not more than a month) Position Trading.

My LT Position Trading Portfolios
Long Term (weeks to months, but not more than a quarter) Position Trading.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Profit Taking Friday .....

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010).

RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio 

There is a good chance that we see profit taking tomorrow which might push SPX down to back test its 13D EMA around lower 1200.  I think that would be a good place to start opening long positions.


 

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010).

RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio 

Today at the open, RTS 20101202 Long Portfolio opened long positions in the following 10 stocks (equal $ amount in each position):

RVBD  SLW  NFLX  LYB  SWKS  NOV  HAL  ALTR   BRCM  LTD

This is a late post.  I would have posted this last night, but I was busy. My plan is to buy into those 10 stock at or near open tomorrow.

Also, since SGS is long again, I am going to start opening position in a long IT portfolio.  I am planning to buy DDM, QLD, SSO and UWM.  The IT Long Portfolio is a 4X4 matrix (4 stocks with 4 positions for each stock).  I'm buying first of four positions in each one of those stocks tomorrow at or near open.

 

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

SGS Went Long as of Close of Wednesday 12/1/2010

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010).
 

SGS is long now.   I didn't get a chance to run the numbers last night.  I'll run them today and post later tonight. 

Market is nicely up, but the probability of back testing SPX 1200 and its 13D EMA is high.

 

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Too Much To Digest

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).

Market has just too much to digest, China, Europe, tax cuts, possible financial Wikileaks, etc.  SPX is range bound between 1200 and 1170, give or take a few points.  There is also a looming descending triangle formation with a possible objective at or near 200D SMA. 



 I still think that chances are good for a Santa rally to test Nov. high and beyond sometime this year, but it's best to let Market make up her mind and set a course for us to follow.  A solid and heavy close above SPX 1200 would be the trigger to go long and a solid and heavy close below 1170 would be the trigger to go short.  I'm looking for SPX to close above 1200 sometime this week.

 

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Monday, November 29, 2010

SPX Sucessfully Tested Its 50D SMA

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).


I think the likelihood of a strong rally from now to end of this year and possibly early next year is high.

 

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Saturday, November 27, 2010

SPX 1200 and 50 Day SMA

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).

Market rallied about 1.5% on Wednesday and then dropped 0.8% on Friday.  The rally on Wednesday was a surprise to me.  I expected either a flat to slightly up day, or a big down day to test SPX 50D SMA.  Instead we got a big push up and closed just above 13D EMA and shy of SPX 1200.  Then on Friday SPX gave most of the gain back and ended up again below 1190.  So, what's next?


Bull Case: Forget about it! Cap. Ben with his fleet of helicopters won't let up. He'll push Market up and up right into Christmas and beyond if needed.  Buy every 1% or more dip and just hold.  If you've done that since March 2009, you would have been up around 200%.  Look for a close above 1200 if you must, then go long 40% IWM, 30% QQQQ, 20% SPY and 10% DIA. 

Bear Case: All rallies are just bear market rallies and opportunities to sell more shorts. SPX is on its way to close below its 50D SMA.  A solid and heavy close below SPX 50D SMA confirms a H & S Top price pattern with its objective at 1120's which  would be SPX 200D SMA support.


My Plan:  SGS has been Neutral since close of Nov 9 which tells me that I should continue to stay in cash in my intermediate and long term accounts (IT and LT).  I'm looking to see if we close solid and heavy above 1200 (which would turn SGS long again) to go long in both IT and LT.  What is more probable at this point is a test of SPX 50D SMA because: (1) Both Dow and OEX have already tested their 50D SMA and (2) SPX is now the closest to its 50D SMA since it crossed and closed above it on Sep 2. A liklihood of intrady move to tag its 50D SMA is high.  SPX is range bound between upper 1190's and lower 1170's.  A smart plan is to stay in cash IT, LT and only continue with short term (ST) position and intraday trading.  I am going to let Market make its move.  A solid and heavy close above 1200 is the trigger for going long IT and LT.  A solid and heavy closing below 50D SMA is the trigger for going short IT and LT.  At this point, SPX very likely is going to tag its 50D SMA, rebound and continue to go higher for the rest of the year.


opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

SPX Is Set To Test Its 50 Day SMA

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).

Dow and OEX closed right on their 50 D-SMA today.  I think we have a good chance of seeing SPX test its 50 D-SMA also, either tomorrow or on Friday.  A solid and heavy close below 50 D-SMA means a very probable visit down to 200 D-SMA (lower 1130's).  That is the bear case.  For the bull case, SPX needs to do a solid and heavy  close above 1200 either tomorrow or on Friday. That's is not very likely.


opader@gmail.com   
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice 



Monday, November 22, 2010

Still Couldn't Get Over 1200

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).

I think we probably sell off  tomorrow back to the lower channel line.



opader@gmail.com

Face Book

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Still Hovering Around 1200

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).

Next week should set Market up for a nice Christmas rally.


opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendations.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Bull Run Back On Again? Maybe.....

A good chance we see 1209 to 1214 on SPX as a high for the day for Friday 11/19. We'll know for sure tomorrow. Note how 13 EMA old support acting as a new resistance now.  Somethings never change.


SGS is Neutral and RTS is in cash.

Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

 

Monday, November 15, 2010

The Big Fight Is On For Tomorrow

Ever since this powerful bull run started (thanks to Captain Ben), except for the last two days, SPX never closed below its 13 EMA (daily).  It has tagged it 7 times since 9/1 and bounced off it quickly.  There have been some minor selling every time SPX closed above its 13 EMA+2.5% V. Shift.  The sharpest sell off happened in three consecutive days after 9/20 when SPX close above its 13 EMA+2.5% V. Shift for the second time since the start of the rally.

On 11/4 and 11/5, SPX closed again above its 13 EMA+2.5% V. Shift.  Right on cue, selling started the next day.  Except for one up day (11/10), selling has continued into the close of today.  SPX has now two consecutive days of closing below its 13 EMA.  That is not good for bulls.  As of now, the likelihood of more selling is higher, but not high enough for me to give up on this rally and open short positions.

Tomorrow will be interesting.  If bulls are to continue their march upward, they'd better get SPX to close nicely above 1200, something like 1211.  If bears want to take over, they'd better push it down to at least 1191.  If nobody wins the fight tomorrow, then we have to wait for another fight on Wednesday.

Another reason that I'm not giving up on this bull run is that I haven't seen Big Money getting ready for a major sell off.  Big Money positions itself well by selling in advance of a major sell off.  I haven't seen that yet, maybe we see it tomorrow.

I'm in cash (moved to cash on 11/10).  I do have small long positions in a few stocks that I opened today for my short term position trading.


SGS is Neutral and RTS is in cash.

Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

My Short Trem Position Trading Summary

Please see:  My Short Term Position Trading .

Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Probable Scenarios for Next Move of SPX

SGS is Neutral and RTS is in cash.

Market sold off this week and SPX closed just below its 13 D-EMA on Friday at 1200.   Ever since this  rally started (Sept 1), SPX has bounced sharply off its 13 D-EMA.  This time it's just sat there, just below it.  To me it means that Market is on the fence and it's hard to see what it might do.  Below a number of probable moves are shown graphically.  I think the likelihood of a bounce and a try at the new resistance line (solid thick black line just above 1220) is good.



Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Market Selling Off .....

SGS is neutral and RTS is in cash. I think there is an excellent chance that 13 EMA support, which has held up since this rally started, would hold up again. If we, however, break through the support with relatively heavy volume and close solidly below it (somewhere in lower 1190's to upper 1180's) tomorrow, then there is a very good chance that we see more selling next week.


RTS portfolio has been update. RTS performace is summerized here : Past RTS Portfolios


opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

SGS Went Neutral as of Close of Tuesday 11/9/2010

SGS is Neutral. 

On Wednesday 11/10/2010 at the open, all 10 long positions in RTS 20101013 Long Portfolio will be closed (sold).  No new positions are opened so long as SGS remains Neutral.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Friday, November 5, 2010

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 11/5/2010

SGS is Long (SGS went long as of close of  Tuesday 10/12/2010).

Getting into RTS portfolio mid-signal is not a good idea.  Best is to wait until SGS status changes and a new portfolio is formed.

RTS Current Portfolio Return= 8.1% (10/13/2010 to Present)
vs. SPX = 4.4%
RTS Total Return=66.2% (11/07/2007 to Present)
vs. SPX = (19.1%)
RTS Ave. Annual Return= 22.1% (11/07/2007 to Present)
vs. SPX = (6.4%)

Current RTS 20101013 Long Portfolio is shown below:
Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Answers to Frequently Asked Questions

What is SGS_ST?

SGS_ST (Short Term) is a short term (hours to days) timer specially designed for SPX.  SGS_ST is trend following timing signal for trading SPY and SPY Options. SGS can be "Long", "Neutral" or "Short". SGS_ST uses at its core 13 EMA for SPX hourly.  It also uses two leading indicator (RSI-14 and a proprietary leading indicator) to make enhance its timing. (VSG, Feb 20, 2016)

What is SGS?

SGS is trend following timing signal for trading. SGS can be "Long", "Neutral" or "Short". SGS is a docile signal and it's designed to change as major market trends change. It's not for short term trading. By its nature, SGS is a lagging indicator. SGS goes long after a bottom is made and goes short after a top is reached.


What is RTS?  

Rank and Trading System (RTS) is what I developed in late 2007. The original idea came from a program called FastRube written by Roy Ashworth to rank and trade mutual funds (longs only).  I used FastRube from 1996 to 2007 and traded Fidelity Select funds. I wrote my own software in 2007 to rank and trade stocks, both shorts and longs.

I backtested RTS, using SGS as its timer, trading from 1995 to 2007. It returned an average of 24% gain per year. I started using RTS in late 2007. All my trades are posted on the main page. Those trades are actual trades and not computer simulated back_tested trades.

What is Balance Trading?

Balance Trading is where I post my own trades in my long term accounts (i.e. retirement accounts, trust and education accounts and generally any money that I wouldn't need for the next five years).

I use SGS to time the entries and exists all of my trades. When SGS goes long, I buy, in equal dollar amount, the top 10 stocks ranked by RTS ranker. I hold those stocks until SGS goes neutral. At that point, I close (sell) my 10 long positions, move in to cash and stay there until SGS changes.  When SGS goes short, I short, again in equal dollar amount, the bottom 10 stocks ranked by RTS. I hold those short positions until SGS goes nuetral. At that point, I close (cover) my 10 short positions, move in to cash and stay there until SGS changes.

I perform ranking every night after on a family of stocks (the top 200 heavily traded stocks and ETFs that are at least $15, excluding short and leveraged ETF's). While holding 10 long positions, if one of the positions fall in the bottom 100 stocks in terms its ranking, I sell that position on the next trading day at the open and buy the highest ranked stock that is not already one of my existing long positions, again at the open. While holding 10 short positions, if one of the positions rises to the top 100 stocks in terms of its ranking, I cover that position on the next trading day at the open and short the lowest ranked stock that is not already one of my existing short positions.  I use Market Orders to open and close my positions.  I don't use stoploss.

I post all RTS trades and SGS signals the night before.


Friday, October 29, 2010

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 10/29/2010

SGS is Long (SGS went long as of close of  Tuesday 10/12/2010).

RTS Current Portfolio Return= 2.6% (10/13/2010 to Present)
vs. SPX = 1.0%
RTS Total Return= 60.7% (11/07/2007 to Present)
vs. SPX = (21.9%)
RTS Ave. Annual Return= 20.4% (11/07/2007 to Present)
vs. SPX = (7.4%)

Current RTS 20101013 Long Portfolio is shown below:
  Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Friday, October 22, 2010

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 10/22/2010

SGS is Long (SGS went long as of close of  Tuesday 10/12/2010).

RTS Current Portfolio Return = (2.2)% (10/13/2010 to Present)
vs. SPX =1.0%
RTS Total Return = 55.9% (11/07/2007 to Present)
vs. SPX = (21.9%)
RTS Ave. Annual Return = 18.9% (11/07/2007 to Present)
vs. SPX = (7.4%)

Current RTS 20101013 Long Portfolio is shown below:
 Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

RTS Selling CRUS and Buying FCX on Friday 10/22/10 at Open

SGS is Long.

In RTS 20101013 Long Portfolio, RTS is selling CRUS and buying FCX in its place tomorrow Friday 10/22/2010 at the open.  RTS 20101013 Long Portfolio is down 2.6% as of today's close.  Full update on Friday.



Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Russell 2000 as of Close of Friday 10/15/2010

Russell looks good.




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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Friday, October 15, 2010

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 10/15/2010

SGS is Long (SGS went long as of close of  Tuesday 10/12/2010).

RTS Current Portfolio Return = (0.4)% (10/13/2010 to Present)
vs. SPX =0.4%
RTS Total Return = 57.7% (11/07/2007 to Present)
vs. SPX = (22.4%)
RTS Ave. Annual Return = 19.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)
vs. SPX = (7.6%)

Current RTS 20101013 Long Portfolio is shown below:

Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

SGS Went Long as of Close of Tuesday 10/12/2010

SGS is Long.

On Wednesday 10/13/2010 at the open,  the following 10 new long positions for RTS 20101013 Long Portfolio will be opened (bought long):

LVS  JCP  SLW  BIDU  NFLX  MOS  BBD   SWKS  CRUS  NTAP

Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 10/8/2010

SGS is Nuetral.

RTS has no open positions.  No new positions are opened so long as SGS remains Neutral.

Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

SGS Went Neutral as of Close of Wednesday 10/6/2010

SGS is Neutral. 

On Thursday 10/7/2010 at the open, all 10 short positions in RTS 20100914 Long Portfolio will be closed (sold).  No new positions are opened so long as SGS remains Neutral.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.