Too Much To Digest

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).

Market has just too much to digest, China, Europe, tax cuts, possible financial Wikileaks, etc.  SPX is range bound between 1200 and 1170, give or take a few points.  There is also a looming descending triangle formation with a possible objective at or near 200D SMA. 

 I still think that chances are good for a Santa rally to test Nov. high and beyond sometime this year, but it's best to let Market make up her mind and set a course for us to follow.  A solid and heavy close above SPX 1200 would be the trigger to go long and a solid and heavy close below 1170 would be the trigger to go short.  I'm looking for SPX to close above 1200 sometime this week.

Past RTS Portfolios

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

SPX Sucessfully Tested Its 50D SMA

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).

 

I think the likelihood of a strong rally from now to end of this year and possibly early next year is high.

Past RTS Portfolios

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

SPX 1200 and 50 Day SMA

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).

Market rallied about 1.5% on Wednesday and then dropped 0.8% on Friday.  The rally on Wednesday was a surprise to me.  I expected either a flat to slightly up day, or a big down day to test SPX 50D SMA.  Instead we got a big push up and closed just above 13D EMA and shy of SPX 1200.  Then on Friday SPX gave most of the gain back and ended up again below 1190.  So, what's next?

Bull Case: Forget about it! Cap. Ben with his fleet of helicopters won't let up. He'll push Market up and up right into Christmas and beyond if needed.  Buy every 1% or more dip and just hold.  If you've done that since March 2009, you would have been up around 200%.  Look for a close above 1200 if you must, then go long 40% IWM, 30% QQQQ, 20% SPY and 10% DIA. 

Bear Case: All rallies are just bear market rallies and opportunities to sell more shorts. SPX is on its way to close below its 50D SMA.  A solid and heavy close below SPX 50D SMA confirms a H & S Top price pattern with its objective at 1120's which  would be SPX 200D SMA support.


My Plan:  SGS has been Neutral since close of Nov 9 which tells me that I should continue to stay in cash in my intermediate and long term accounts (IT and LT).  I'm looking to see if we close solid and heavy above 1200 (which would turn SGS long again) to go long in both IT and LT.  What is more probable at this point is a test of SPX 50D SMA because: (1) Both Dow and OEX have already tested their 50D SMA and (2) SPX is now the closest to its 50D SMA since it crossed and closed above it on Sep 2. A liklihood of intrady move to tag its 50D SMA is high.  SPX is range bound between upper 1190's and lower 1170's.  A smart plan is to stay in cash IT, LT and only continue with short term (ST) position and intraday trading.  I am going to let Market make its move.  A solid and heavy close above 1200 is the trigger for going long IT and LT.  A solid and heavy closing below 50D SMA is the trigger for going short IT and LT.  At this point, SPX very likely is going to tag its 50D SMA, rebound and continue to go higher for the rest of the year.

Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

SPX Is Set To Test Its 50 Day SMA

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).

Dow and OEX closed right on their 50 D-SMA today.  I think we have a good chance of seeing SPX test its 50 D-SMA also, either tomorrow or on Friday.  A solid and heavy close below 50 D-SMA means a very probable visit down to 200 D-SMA (lower 1130's).  That is the bear case.  For the bull case, SPX needs to do a solid and heavy  close above 1200 either tomorrow or on Friday. That's is not very likely.

 Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice 

Still Couldn't Get Over 1200

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).

I think we probably sell off  tomorrow back to the lower channel line.

Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Still Hovering Around 1200

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 11/9) and RTS is in cash (as of open of 11/10).

Next week should set Market up for a nice Christmas rally.

 Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendations.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Bull Run Back On Again? Maybe.....

A good chance we see 1209 to 1214 on SPX as a high for the day for Friday 11/19. We'll know for sure tomorrow. Note how 13 EMA old support acting as a new resistance now.  Somethings never change.

 

SGS is Neutral and RTS is in cash.

Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

 

The Big Fight Is On For Tomorrow

Ever since this powerful bull run started (thanks to Captain Ben), except for the last two days, SPX never closed below its 13 EMA (daily).  It has tagged it 7 times since 9/1 and bounced off it quickly.  There have been some minor selling every time SPX closed above its 13 EMA+2.5% V. Shift.  The sharpest sell off happened in three consecutive days after 9/20 when SPX close above its 13 EMA+2.5% V. Shift for the second time since the start of the rally.

On 11/4 and 11/5, SPX closed again above its 13 EMA+2.5% V. Shift.  Right on cue, selling started the next day.  Except for one up day (11/10), selling has continued into the close of today.  SPX has now two consecutive days of closing below its 13 EMA.  That is not good for bulls.  As of now, the likelihood of more selling is higher, but not high enough for me to give up on this rally and open short positions.

Tomorrow will be interesting.  If bulls are to continue their march upward, they'd better get SPX to close nicely above 1200, something like 1211.  If bears want to take over, they'd better push it down to at least 1191.  If nobody wins the fight tomorrow, then we have to wait for another fight on Wednesday.

Another reason that I'm not giving up on this bull run is that I haven't seen Big Money getting ready for a major sell off.  Big Money positions itself well by selling in advance of a major sell off.  I haven't seen that yet, maybe we see it tomorrow.

I'm in cash (moved to cash on 11/10).  I do have small long positions in a few stocks that I opened today for my short term position trading.

SGS is Neutral and RTS is in cash.

Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

My Short Trem Position Trading Summary

Please see:  My Short Term Position Trading .

Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Probable Scenarios for Next Move of SPX

SGS is Neutral and RTS is in cash.

Market sold off this week and SPX closed just below its 13 D-EMA on Friday at 1200.   Ever since this  rally started (Sept 1), SPX has bounced sharply off its 13 D-EMA.  This time it's just sat there, just below it.  To me it means that Market is on the fence and it's hard to see what it might do.  Below a number of probable moves are shown graphically.  I think the likelihood of a bounce and a try at the new resistance line (solid thick black line just above 1220) is good.

Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Market Selling Off .....

SGS is neutral and RTS is in cash. I think there is an excellent chance that 13 EMA support, which has held up since this rally started, would hold up again. If we, however, break through the support with relatively heavy volume and close solidly below it (somewhere in lower 1190's to upper 1180's) tomorrow, then there is a very good chance that we see more selling next week.

RTS portfolio has been update. RTS performace is summerized here : Past RTS Portfolios


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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Went Neutral as of Close of Tuesday 11/9/2010

SGS is Neutral. 

On Wednesday 11/10/2010 at the open, all 10 long positions in RTS 20101013 Long Portfolio will be closed (sold).  No new positions are opened so long as SGS remains Neutral.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 11/5/2010

SGS is Long (SGS went long as of close of  Tuesday 10/12/2010).

Getting into RTS portfolio mid-signal is not a good idea.  Best is to wait until SGS status changes and a new portfolio is formed.

RTS Current Portfolio Return= 8.1% (10/13/2010 to Present)

vs. SPX = 4.4%

RTS Total Return=66.2% (11/07/2007 to Present)
vs. SPX = (19.1%)

RTS Ave. Annual Return= 22.1% (11/07/2007 to Present)

vs. SPX = (6.4%)

Current RTS 20101013 Long Portfolio is shown below:

Past RTS Portfolios

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Answers to Frequently Asked Questions

What is SGS_ST?

SGS_ST (Short Term) is a short term (hours to days) timer specially designed for SPX.  SGS_ST is trend following timing signal for trading SPY and SPY Options. SGS can be "Long", "Neutral" or "Short". SGS_ST uses at its core 13 EMA for SPX hourly.  It also uses two leading indicator (RSI-14 and a proprietary leading indicator) to make enhance its timing. (VSG, Feb 20, 2016)

What is SGS?

SGS is trend following timing signal for trading. SGS can be "Long", "Neutral" or "Short". SGS is a docile signal and it's designed to change as major market trends change. It's not for short term trading. By its nature, SGS is a lagging indicator. SGS goes long after a bottom is made and goes short after a top is reached.

What is RTS?  

Rank and Trading System (RTS) is what I developed in late 2007. The original idea came from a program called FastRube written by Roy Ashworth to rank and trade mutual funds (longs only).  I used FastRube from 1996 to 2007 and traded Fidelity Select funds. I wrote my own software in 2007 to rank and trade stocks, both shorts and longs.

I backtested RTS, using SGS as its timer, trading from 1995 to 2007. It returned an average of 24% gain per year. I started using RTS in late 2007. All my trades are posted on the main page. Those trades are actual trades and not computer simulated back_tested trades.

What is Balance Trading?

Balance Trading is where I post my own trades in my long term accounts (i.e. retirement accounts, trust and education accounts and generally any money that I wouldn't need for the next five years).

I use SGS to time the entries and exists all of my trades. When SGS goes long, I buy, in equal dollar amount, the top 10 stocks ranked by RTS ranker. I hold those stocks until SGS goes neutral. At that point, I close (sell) my 10 long positions, move in to cash and stay there until SGS changes.  When SGS goes short, I short, again in equal dollar amount, the bottom 10 stocks ranked by RTS. I hold those short positions until SGS goes nuetral. At that point, I close (cover) my 10 short positions, move in to cash and stay there until SGS changes.

I perform ranking every night after on a family of stocks (the top 200 heavily traded stocks and ETFs that are at least $15, excluding short and leveraged ETF's). While holding 10 long positions, if one of the positions fall in the bottom 100 stocks in terms its ranking, I sell that position on the next trading day at the open and buy the highest ranked stock that is not already one of my existing long positions, again at the open. While holding 10 short positions, if one of the positions rises to the top 100 stocks in terms of its ranking, I cover that position on the next trading day at the open and short the lowest ranked stock that is not already one of my existing short positions.  I use Market Orders to open and close my positions.  I don't use stoploss.

I post all RTS trades and SGS signals the night before.