A Test of SPX Primary Up Trend Line Very Likely

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

In order for Market to resume its bull run, SPX must successfully test its Primary Up Trend Line and then solidly close above the upper channel line of Down Trending Price Channel.  There is a good chance we see that happening tomorrow.  There is also the probability of close below Primary Up Trend Line which would be very bearish.  It's 50/50.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Egypt is the Unkown for Market

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Two things are worrying Market: (1) Would unrest spread to other Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf Arab States (major oil producing countries)? (2) Would unrest delay or stop goods, specially oil, shipped through Suez Canal?

From what I've read (btw, http://www.juancole.com/ is an excellent source for ME news and analysis in my opinion), it's highly unlikely for unrest to spread to ME major oil producing countries.  Also so far, unrest and protests had very little impact on shipping in Suez Canal.  Once that becomes evident, Market  would rally from the oversold condition that it's in now.  That could happen as early as tomorrow  and SPX could rally to back test its 13D EMA around mid 1280's.

There is also a good chance for further selling if things get completely out of control in Egypt.  In that case, SPX very likely breaks through the Primary Uptrend Line, currently around 1270, and sells off to the lower channel line of the Down Trending Price Channel, around 1260.

Tomorrow, Jan 31, I'm hoping for a rally in SPX to retest its 13D EMA.  I would unload my IT positions into that rally if it happens.  Otherwise I will unload my IT positions sometime near close.

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Situation in Egypt is the Wild Card for Tomorrow.

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Externally and internally, Market looks excellent.  If things get nasty in Egypt over night, Market could sell off tomorrow down to lower 1290's to mid 1280's.  I think that dip is an excellent opportunity to add more long positions.  Personally I think Market will rally possibly to SPX 1314. I'm planning to unload my ST and IT into that rally if we get it.

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RTS Selling ACI and Buying CEIN on Thursday 1/27/11 at Open

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

In RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio, RTS is selling ACI and buying CIEN in its place today Thursday 1/27/2011 at the open.

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SPX Broke Through And Set A New 52 Week High

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Today was an all around good day and 52 week new highs were set for SPX and Dow.  SPX broke through a secondary resistance line which would act as support should we get a "profit taking" intraday sell off which is very likely sometime this week.  What's really needed now is new highs for NAZ, RUT and TRAN, still very likely this week.

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Indices Sold Off and Came Back to Close Green ... Impressive

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Major indices came back from about 1% loss today to close either flat or green.  That was impressive.  Tomorrow SPX very likely will break through the resistance line and set a new 52 week high.

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Leaders Led Today -- That's A Good Sign

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Today was a good day for bulls.  Leaders, TRAN, NAZ and RUT, nicely led.  Dow closed at a new 52 week high, SPX and NDX should follow suit soon.  What's needed now for the bull run to continue higher, are new highs for the leaders.  I think we'll see that sometime next week if not this week.

In my LT, I'm dumping AIG tomorrow and replacing it with NFLX.

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Tomorrow, Monday, Another Critical Day for Bulls

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

The leaders, RUT, TRAN and NAZ need to rally tomorrow or the bull run since late August 2010 is going to be in trouble.

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Tomorrow, Friday, A Critical Day

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Tomorrow is critical day.  Too much damage has been done already to TRAN, RUT and NAZ.  SPX is still holding up well, but it might crack tomorrow too.  A solid close at lower 1270's or lower would be very bearish, a solid close in upper 1280's or higher would be very bullish.  Market will tell us where she stands by close tomorrow.

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Sell Off Today - A Classical Profit Taking?

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Despite a 2.5% drop in RUT, there was no wholesale liquidation in small or large caps except for a handful of issues with disappointing earnings reports.  Naz tested its 13D EMA and closed above it.  SPX tested its most immediate support and closed above it as well.  Primary trend lines in all major indices, except for RUT and TRAN, are intact.

RUT and TRAN closed solidly below their 13D EMA's and their primary up trend lines.  On the face of it that's negative and points to more selling to come tomorrow, but when their gains since late August 2010 (34% for RUT and 31% for TRAN) are considered, one can conclude that today's sell off was nothing but an healthy and much needed profit taking.

I'm planning to buy this dip at some point either on Thr or Fri.  That buy would be the 3rd of 4 buys for my IT and 3rd and final buy for my LT.  I'll post on FC and Twitter as I buy.

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SPX Looks Excellent

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Possible range for SPX is shown above.

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Tomorrow, Tuesday, Another Buying Opportunity

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

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Tomorrow, A Critical Day

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

SPX successfully tested its most immediate support line today.  I believe that decline was due to profit taking.  Tomorrow is a critical day and SPX needs to close above today's low.  A close below today's low by SPX and other major indices signals more selling to come next week.

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Market Looks Really Good Now

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

I think what's happening is that inflation is beginning to really show its ugly head. So side money has to be exposed to more risk or inflation is going to eat it up.  This means more money is finding its way to equities.

Chances are good for a little sell off (profit taking) either tomorrow or on Friday.  I'll buy that dip if it happens.  I'll post on my FB wall as I buy.

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A Melt Up .... Possibly Tomorrow With Europe's Help

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Once again the fight is on for tomorrow.  I think bulls are going to have pulled bear meat with hot jalapenos sandwiches for lunch (Texan way, more specifically Austin's Whole Foods Market).  All we need is a tamed Portuguese bond auction.  I'll be watching Europe tomorrow before open.

Today, leaders TRAN and NDX put in new highs and Naz followed suit.  Tomorrow I think we'll see new highs in SPX  and with a little bit of luck in RUT.  That would be really nice.

If things don't go bulls' way, then a trip down to 13D EMA is very much in the cards for SPX.

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SPX Sucessfully Tested Its 13D EMA

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

SPX retested its 13D EMA and also put in a higher low for the day which is bullish.  I missed that buying opportunity.  SPX very likely will break through and close above the recent minor down-trend line.  Once that occurs, there is a good chance that SPX dips down again to back test that resistance (acting as a support after breakout).  That would be another good entry point for opening more long positions.

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A Retest of Lower Price Channel Line and 13D EMA for SPX Likely Tomorrow

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

SPX very likely dips down to its lower price channel line and possibly to its 13D EMA tomorrow.  If that happens and not much selling occurs in the broader market, then that dip would present a good opportunity to scale into more long positions.  More on my FB Wall tomorrow during trading hours.

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SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio
 

Tomorrow is either a huge up day or a moderately down day depending on unemploymnet data which  to be released at 8:30 AM.  I believe we'll have a strong rally.

Per my plan, I scaled into long positions in my LT and IT portfolios.

VSG IT

VSG LT
 

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Dips Are Bought With Vengeance

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

It's time to put money to work.  .  My plan is to go long with 1/3 of my LT and 1/4 of my IT.  For LT, I'm going to split 50/50 long positions between RTS stocks and index ETF's.  For IT, I am buying into index ETF's.

10 RTS Stocks I like are: RVBD, LYB, PCX, TCK, MEE, CIEN, FCX, LVS, AIG , SWKS and NOV
(edited on 1/6/11, 5:50 AM PST, LVS out NOV in)

4 Index ETF's I like are: DIA, SPY, QQQQ and IWM.
Equal $ in each position.

Tomorrow I'll post on my FB Wall and Twitter when I put my market orders in.

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Tax Selling Started Today And Very Likely Continues

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio
 

My guess is that selling will continue tomorrow, again mostly in small caps with double or triple digit % gains in 2010.

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A Bull Market Correction Possibly Starts This Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Chances are good that we see a correction in major indices sometime this week, possibly as early as tomorrow.  It's best to give Market another day or two to consolidate and then set a direction either up or down.

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Major Indices Look Topped Out

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Market looks topped out and tired.  SPX very likely tests its 13D EMA (around 1250) tomorrow.  If not much selling occurs in individual stocks as SPX dips down to 1251 to 1250, then that dip is a good place to scale into long positions.  If selling is broad and heavy, SPX very likely goes down more to test its primary uptrend line later in the week.

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RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio (New)

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Tomorrow at the open, RTS will open new long positions (buys long) in the following 10 stocks:

RVBD  LYB  SLW  TCK  FCX  NOV  MEE  MOS  ACI  PCX

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