Wednesday, June 22, 2011

The Flight Is On Again Tomorrow -- Bulls Very Likely Winners

SGS is Long (as of close of 4/1/2011)
RTS 20110404 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark) 

My Long Term Portfolio
My Intermediate Term  Portfolio
My Short Term Portfolio


Despite the sell off just before the close today (profit taking), indices look very good.  Tomorrow indices very likely start with a sell off, and then should close substantially higher.

I'm off camping for the next 10 days.  I'm going to be completely off line.  I have contingent orders to sell my IT and LT portfolios at SPX 1324.  Happy Independence Day.

Face Book
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Another Great Day For Bulls

SGS is Long (as of close of 4/1/2011)
RTS 20110404 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark) 

My Long Term Portfolio
My Intermediate Term  Portfolio
My Short Term Portfolio


Another great close, SPX is still oversold and it very likely will clear 1300 tomorrow, after that a move to 50D SMA (around 1320) is almost a sure thing.

Face Book
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.


on

Monday, June 20, 2011

Today, Very Nice

SGS is Long (as of close of 4/1/2011)
RTS 20110404 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark) 

Price movement for DJT, RUT and SPX was positive today.  At this point odds of revisiting and testing  the recent lows in indices are slim.

Face Book
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Greeks Over There And Tea Baggers Over Here

SGS is Long (as of close of 4/1/2011)
RTS 20110404 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

If Greeks can get something positive going in Europe and the House Reps signal that they wouldn't push for a government shut down in US, SPX very likely rallies to back test its 50D SMA (around 1320) sometime in the next couple of weeks. What happens after that will mostly depend on earnings and forecast by companies.  If they're good, indices go higher to set new highs, otherwise indices would sell off until Uncle Ben comes to the rescue with his QE-III.  

One thing is for sure: The last thing Big Money wants at this point is another financial meltdown.

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Big Money Has To Make His Big Decision Tomorrow

SGS is Long (as of close of 4/1/2011)
RTS 20110404 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
Market is still deeply oversold.  Tomorrow is Big Money's final chance to bring indices back to a neutral level before the closing bell.  Odds are very good that we see an explosive rally by 1 PM.  What happens after that would be very telling as what Big Money is planning for the market for the next two to three weeks..   If indices are pushed up into the close, we're in for a significant rebound.  If indices close flat or significantly lower, we're in for a very rough ride.

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

What Is Really Happening

SGS is Long (as of close of 4/1/2011)
RTS 20110404 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)


When Big Money unloads his long positions, because he believes Market is about to enter or has already entered a bear period, there are certain things that happens. For example, you see indices are down only 0.5% or 0.6%, but 20 or 30 stocks are fire sold, i.e. sold with a significant price drop at an extremely high volume. Number of new highs basically grinds down to less than 10 while number of new lows shoots up to levels 2 or 3 times higher than the previous day.

Today, even though indices were down as much as 2%, there were only 3 stocks that were being fire sold. Number of new lows for NYSE actually dropped. Volume was higher than yesterday, but by no means today can be characterized as a heavy volume day.

What is really happening is that Big Money is not liquidating his long positions, but he is trying hard to force everyone else to do so. To me that means we are close to a bottom  for the current round of correction. Indices will soon start rallying back to the trend.

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Big Money Needs Neutrality By Friday OPEX

SGS is Long (as of close of 4/1/2011)
RTS 20110404 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

If you had written (sold) tons of indices puts and calls, on or just prior to their expiration what state would you want indices to be at?  The answer is: Neutral, because it's in that state of neutrality that you would make most money by rending nearly all of those options worthless.  If indices are oversold or overbought you would end up losing money.  That's exactly where Big Money is pushing indices prior to Friday.  Since indices are still oversold, Big Money will keep on pushing them higher tomorrow and Thursday to achieve neutrality. 

Neutrality in TA is where trend lies.  In a more immediate term, it's 13D EMA (the short term dynamic trend line) and in a longer term it's the primary up trend or down trend line.  For SPX, those neutral levels would be around 1294 (back test of 13D EMA) and 1319 (back test of the primary up trend).

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Monday, June 13, 2011

Big Money Shook Out Weak Longs Today

SGS is Long (as of close of 4/1/2011)
RTS 20110404 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
RTS is selling TSO, MCP, JDSU, buying MRO, BHI and MSI in their places tomorrow at the open.
 
My Long Term Portfolio
I'm selling TSO, MCP, buying NFLX and CBS in their places tomorrow at the open.
My Intermediate Term  Portfolio
My Short Term Portfolio

Finally today Big Money managed to shake out a few weak longs and cause some panic selling in the broader market.  Market is still deeply oversold and a strong rally into OPEX this Friday is imminent.

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Market Is Deeply Oversold Again

SGS is Long (as of close of 4/1/2011)
RTS 20110404 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
Once again cash indices were decimated via their index futures on Friday.  Market is deeply oversold and the possibility of a massive correction / crash is higher now than anytime since the recent sell off began. Although that possibility cannot be rule out, but the likelihood of it happening at this point is extremely remote for many reasons.  The top reason, imo, is that a financial meltdown at this point is not beneficial, short or long term, to the handful of  global investment, trading and banking firms who control all financial markets (i.e. Big Money).  In fact, it would be quite damaging and therefore it's extremely unlikely that it happens.  

Having ruled out a crash, Market is left with only one choice and that is a rebound.  It's hard to say how far indices would recover, but a 50% retracement is well within cards.  Assuming SPX 1261 as the low point for this correction, it's likely that SPX rallies to higher 1310's to back test its 50D SMA sometime in the next two weeks.

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Indices Are Still Oversold

SGS is Long (as of close of 4/1/2011)
RTS 20110404 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 

Indices are still oversold, the rally that started today should continue tomorrow.

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Indices Are Oversold .... Rally To Back Test 13D EMA Is Likely This Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 4/1/2011)
RTS 20110404 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
RTS is selling CIEN and buying EP in its place tomorrow at the open.

My Long Term Portfolio
My Intermediate Term  Portfolio
My Short Term Portfolio

Indices are once again at extreme oversold levels and hence increasing the chance of a significant correction (5% or more) or a crash (10% or more).   That possibility however is still very remote, but if it is to happen, all prerequisites for it are in place now.

Since this bull market started, March 6, 2009 (from SPX 666!), there has been 6 corrections with an average SPX correction of 8.9% lasting on average 19 trading days.  Current correction is 26 trading days old and SPX has lost 6.9% since its peak of 1370.58 on May 2. Market is due for a bounce from its oversold level.  That bounce very likely would push SPX up to back test its 13D EMA sometime in the next couple of trading days.

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Big Money Has Started To Buy


The difference between today's and yesterday's last 30 minutes of trading was like night and day. Yesterday, retail investor got scared and unloaded big into the close, today Big Money was busy stealthily  buying whatever was down big.

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Monday, June 6, 2011

Market Is Dangerously Oversold Now


Extreme oversold conditions always have preceded significant sell offs or crashes. After five consecutive weeks of correction, indices are dangerously oversold now.  A bounce is a must and very likely at this point.

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 
on

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Market Is Oversold ........ A Bounce Is Very Likely


Since 5/2 major indices have corrected on average around 6%.  That's more than any of major market sectors which makes this correction highly unusual.  In a correction, regardless of  its severity, there are at least one or two market sectors that lead the sell off, typically correcting 150% to 200% more than indices. Since that's not happening, it's very likely that cash indices are pushed down hard via their future contacts.  Since 5/2, future index contracts are sold forcefully into all cash market rallies.  It doesn't matter why they (the usual suspects, i.e. Big Money) are doing this.  What's important is that Big Money is not selling its long positions in equities and hence the recent sell off is short lived and very likely at or near its completion.

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 
on

Thursday, June 2, 2011

A Rally For SPX To Back Test Primary Supports Is Very Likely



SPX tested the lower channel line of its price channel today.  At this point a rally for SPX to back test its primary supports (i.e. primary up trend line, 50D SMA and 13D EMA) around 1330 is very likely.

Market is still looking good and I believe we're at or very near the end of this round of bull market correction.

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

on

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Demand For Short Term Protection Is Taxing Indices



Bears couldn't have asked for a better day.  What happened today is puzzling to me.  My best guess is that money is not divested.  In fact, more and more of it is invested in equities. What else is also sought, very aggressively, is short term protection for the money that's coming in and the money that's already in. Purchase of that short term protection, nearly all of it via index futures and options, is very taxing on cash indices.  

SGS is still long, but it's flashing "Neutral".

Face Book   
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 
on
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)