Monday, October 31, 2011

Once Again, Cash Indices Were Dragged Down

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

Per my plan I did my second buy today around SPX 1260.
  
Once again Big Money dragged cash indices down by selling index future contracts today.  Except for some minor churning, Big Money was very inactive in the market.

The down risk in the market at this point is very limited in my opinion.  Although one cannot totally dismiss the possibility of a significant correction to retest of Oct 4 lows, but I believe that Big Money is going to push  indices much higher between now and end of year for a number of reasons. The most import of which is that Big Money realizes another financial crisis (that would bring about Oct 4 lows retest) would be extremely damaging to three major parts of his business: retail investment, IPO and M&A.  I think his objective and goal of destroying his competition in retail investment and trading has been realized nicely, specially in the second half of this year (Big Money's Big Dilemma, MF Global bankruptcy  for example is his latest victory in that front).

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Sunday, October 30, 2011

In Very Short Term, Market Is Overbought

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
RTS is selling EXPE and buying SNDK in its place tomorrow at the open.
I sold AMZN on Friday, but decided not to buy BP yet.

Major indices are up 15% - 25% for the month making the market very overbought.  I do expect a correction at this point.  We're also entering into the most seasonally bullish period of the year and hence corrections are going to be steep, but short in length (time).  Expect for Thursday, volume has been low for up days so far, but low volume doesn't concern me because new highs have been expanding nicely on both NYSE and NASDAQ while new lows have remained in check.  Also, Big Money was busy last week churning his long positions which is always a telltale sign of a pending significant up move.

I expect the current rally to continue into early next year and plan to add more long positions as indices correct (intraday 1.5% to 2.5%).

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Thursday, October 27, 2011

A Back Test Of SPX 200 D-SMA Is Very Likely Tomorrow

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
RTS is selling AMZN and buying M in its place tomorrow at the open.
I am selling AMZN and buying BP in its place sometime tomorrow.


Today's rally was impressive.  Side money kept coming in all day long.  Volume and internal numbers were also bullish.  I think there is a very good chance that Market rallies into next year in a very volatile and news driven way.  My plan is to add more long positions as corrections occur (1.5% to 2% drop intraday). 

All major indices are hovering around their 200 D-SMA.   SPX is closed slightly above it's 200 D-SMA today.  There is a good chance we see a back test of 200 D-SMA either tomorrow or early next week.  My plan is to add more long positions when SPX back tests its 200 D-SMA.
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Futures Are Way Up ........ Close Is Everything

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

I didn't get a chance to look at anything or blog last night. Futures are way up, let's where it closes. I'll have more comments on my FB Wall during the day.
 
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Tuesday, October 25, 2011

BiG Money Is Churning ... A Good Sign For Bulls

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
Per my plan I did my first buy today as indices were down around 1%, didn't expect them to go much lower, but they did.

Indices went down around 2% to 3%, much more than what I had expected (around 1%).  Internals looked OK and Big Money was busy churning stocks which is always a good sign for more moves up.

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Monday, October 24, 2011

Market Looks Excellent .... Higher We Go

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
I am planing to buy 4 buys, 1st buy tomorrow early in the day.  I'm buying 50% index ETFS: QQQ, IWM, SPY, DIA (equal $) and 50% 10 RTS stocks: M, SNDK, ERTS, AMZN, V, SBUX, INTC, AAPL, WMB, MCD (equal $).
 
Indices are all coming to test their 200 D-SMA which very likely turn indices back a percent or two.  That would be a good buying opportunity.  That could happen as early as tomorrow.

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Sunday, October 23, 2011

A Major Bull Leg Has Very Likely Started

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
On Friday we had good internal numbers for both NYSE and NASDAQ, but trading volume for both markets was very light.  That suggests what we saw on Friday was mostly short covering which accelerated due to "good news" coming out Europe.

Sometimes short covering is the initial phase of a major bull run.  I believe indices will continue to go higher by 10% to 15%  in a very news driven volatile way  between now and Christmas.  My plan is to open new long positions on pull back.

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Thursday, October 20, 2011

Bulls Need A Solid Close Above SPX 1230 Soon

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
Without a solid close (good volume and bullish internal data) above SPX 1230 soon, bulsl should forget about a Christmas rally this year.  The longer indices stay just below the upper boundary of the recent trading range the harder it would become to break through that boundary.

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Wednesday, October 19, 2011

A Quick Update

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

Number of new highs significantly increased on NYSE and NASDAQ.  That is very bullish.  I think indices are ready to break out of their trading range soon.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2011

SPX Is Testing Resistance At 1230

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
RTS will sell PM and buy ERTS in its place tomorrow at the open.

Four of five major indices (DJI, RUT, SPX and DJT) are still trading below their recent highs.  NAZ is the only index that closed above its recent high (on 9/20/2011) today. 

What bulls desperately need is for all major indices to close above their recent highs with a good volume and an expanding number of new highs. IF and when that happens, I would be opening long positions as indices pull back to back test past resistance levels which should act as strong supports in a true and valid breakout.

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Monday, October 17, 2011

Is SPX Going To Test Its 50D SMA Soon?

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
RTS will sell DFS and buy AMZN in its place tomorrow at the open.

Cash indices were dragged down significantly as Big Money sold index contracts and call options ahead of OPEX this Friday.  Big Money isn't liquidating his long positions, at least not yet.

There is no point opening any position (long or short) in this market so long as SPX is sandwiched between 1230 and its 50D SMA, currently around lower 1170's.  Chances are good that we see SPX tests its 50D SMA sometime this week, even as early as tomorrow.

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Sunday, October 16, 2011

Internal Data Is Beginning To Look Better

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

Indices have started to trade in a more sustainable uptrend channel (shown in purple for SPX).  At the same time the number of new highs increased nicely  for both NYSE and NAZ on Friday.  I think if SPX gets through 1230 with a relatively good volume and an increasing number of  new highs, we could see a rally to test  Primary Down Trend Line (shown in orange) between now and Thanksgiving.  I would be scaling into long positions again on pull backs to test the lower line of the new price channel (shown in purple).

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Thursday, October 13, 2011

A Swoosh Down To SPX 1170?

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
All five major indices put in a lower low today. Except for NAZ, they also closed at a lower close.  There is a good chance that we see bears come out tomorrow.  If earnings disappoints tomorrow, a quick swoosh down to 50D SMA for SPX  around 1170 is very much in the cards.

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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Is Current Bear Market Rally About Done?

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
Per my plan I closed all my long positions today.

Expect for SPX, all four other major indices have now broken out and closed above their recent trading range.  The bulls are now ready to take charge and lead indices higher, but there are no sectors leading the  way.  That lack of leadership is a telltale sign that the recent sharp rally (started on 10/4) is a bear market rally and very likely would be short lived.

Indices are over bought and they very likely will sell off to back test their 50D SMA sometime this week.

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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Market Internal Data Is Not Confirming Recent Sharp Rally

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
Today NAZ, DJI, SPX and DJT traded above their 50D SMA for the second day in a row.  Also today, RUT closed slightly above its 50D SMA.  Market internal data including volume, however, is not painting a bullish picture.

My plan is to unload my LT portfolio somewhere around 1209 to 1214, hopefully sometime tomorrow.

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Monday, October 10, 2011

SPX Getting Close To The Top Of Its Trading Range

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
 
All major indices, except for RUT, closed solidly above their 50D SMA.  I think there is a good chance that we see SPX rally early in the day tomorrow and test the upper channel line of its trading range around 1210.  My plan is to unload my LT portfolio at that point, somewhere around 1209 to 1214.

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Sunday, October 9, 2011

Big Money's Big Dilemma (((())))

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

I changed my FB profile so that my status and comments are public. http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001563450122


Since late 2007 there has been an on-going war between Big Money and hedge funds.  In 2008-2009 crash, Big Money saw to it that hedge fund industry suffers greatly and as a result a number of hedge funds either went under or lost a great deal of their money and investors. In recent quarters, hedge funds have lost a great deal of money again and Big Money could put the final nail in coffins of a number hedge funds by dragging indices substantially down and create another mini financial crisis, but he has a dilemma.  His dilemma is that  another financial crisis would mean losing possibly another generation of retail investors.  I have no idea how he's going to play his cards now and how he intends to close the year.

Indices are all coming up against their 50D SMA.  SPX very likely test its 50D SMA around 1180 tomorrow.  If SPX can manage to break through and trade above its 50D SMA for the rest of the week, the likelihood of SPX testing the upper channel of its two month trading range (thick brown) around 1210 sometime next week is high.  At this point I believe that would be a good place to close long positions and go into cash.

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Thursday, October 6, 2011

Show Me The Money Or Else

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
Indices rallied and closed right around their 20D SMA as expected.  Tomorrow bears have a chance to take indices way down if unemployment data massively disappoints.  Otherwise, indices will make an attempt to test their 50D SMA.  For SPX, that would be trading around 1180.

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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

SPX Is About To Test Its 20 D-SMA

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
 
Major indices are all about to test their 20 D-SMA either tomorrow or on Friday.  The 20 D-SMA for SPX is around 1160.  We very likely see SPX trading at or near that resistance sometime this week.

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Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Bulls Got A Close Above SPX 1100 And Then Some

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
The rally in the last 30 minutes of trading today was most impressive.  It wasn't just a short covering rally, side money flowed in at an impressive scale.  The likelihood of the rally continuing for the rest of this week is very high.

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