Indices Are Ready To Test Their 200 D-SMA Again

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

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DJI closed above its 200 D-SMA's. Other four major indices, DJT, NAZ, SPX and RUT are getting close to test their 200 D-SMA's.  I expect all major indices to close above their 200 D-SMA's either tomorrow or early next week.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Bulls Need A Solid Close Above 50 D-SMA Soon

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

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 DJI and DJT are trading above their 50 D-SMA's.  We need other major indices to follow suit soon.

 

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All Bull Runs Start With Short Covering

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

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Yesterday's rally was mostly short covering of future contracts of indices.  Volume was weak, but internals were all positive and bullish.  Small caps led the rally yesterday and finished strong at the close. 

I think chances are good for indices to go continue their rally today.  A close above 50 D-SMA (around 1203) for SPX would be bullish and would force more short covering.

 

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Indices Are Deeply Oversold

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio 

 

 

Major indices have been down for 7 consecutive days making the market extremely oversold as we move into one of the seasonally strongest periods of the year.   Futures are sharply higher as of this writing, but we have to wait to see where they are trading tomorrow near close.  

The downside risk is limited in my opinion, maybe a retest of early October lows (around SPX 1070) at the worst.  A panic sell off to that support is definitely a great buying opportunity.

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Happy Thanksgiving

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio 

I am taking the entire thanksgiving week off.  I would post if needed. 

Cash indices are driven down hard today b/c of selling of index futures.  This is a buying opportunity.

Happy Thanksgiving.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Downside Risk Is Very Limited

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
RTS is selling ERTS and buying SBUX in its place on 11/18/11 at the open.

My Long Term Portfolio 
I'm selling ERTS and buying CSCO sometime early tomorrow.

Downside risk is very limited.  Today was the same old OPEX BS by Big Money, yoyo the indices so much that nearly all calls and puts become worthless.

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Oct 4 Rally Is Still Intact

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
RTS is selling AXP and buying CSCO in its on 11/17/2011 at the open.

My Long Term Portfolio 

Indices went down hard as Market was closing.  That's never a good sign for bulls, but I think things are fine.  There was no sign that Big Money was unloading his long equity positions.  He was just manipulating cash indices via their future contracts.  Also, this is OPEX week so we have extra volatility. 

You see Big Money has big bills, needs to make money by rendering worthless those puts and calls he wrote.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

It Looks Like Big Money Is Stealthily Buying

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio 

 

 Big Money was not doing much today which is a good sign.   Another good sign for bulls is what I've noticed during the recent trading days. Looking at intraday charts of heavily traded stocks (SPY for example), I've noticed that prices have gone up near close with much higher relative volume. That's Big Money buying stealthily.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Still Looking Good For A Push Pass 200 D-SMA This Week

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

Nothing really happened today.  Lowest volume day for 2011 and no action by Big Money.  Indices are still looking good for a push through their 200 D-SMA's sometime this week.

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Indices Are Ready To Put Their 200 D-EMA's Behind Them

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

As European financial seas become calmer, Big Money will run indices higher via their futures starting tonight and very likely into the close tomorrow. Big Money's goals are: (1) force short and intermediate term bears to cover shorts, and (2) force sidelined fund managers to come in and open new long equity positions or at least buy index future contracts.  No money manager wants to stay put in cash while indices go substantially higher. 

The combination of 1 and 2 above, could result in a huge run in indices in the next couple of weeks.  My expectation is that SPX very likely would be trading around 1330 just before thanksgiving (see chart).

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

200 D-SMA Resistance Is Getting Weak

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

All five major indices are now trading below their 200 D-SMA, but  that wall of resistance has got a few big holes in it now and has become quite weak.  I expect indices to rally either tomorrow or early next week and close solidly above their 200 D-SMA's for the last time in 2011.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Not A Good Day For Bulls

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio 
Per my plan I did my 4th and final buy today around SPX 1248.

Cash indices were dragged down around 3.5% today, but there was no selling of individual issues by Big Money.   What happened today was  massive selling of index future contracts, some by the doom / gloom crowd, shorting the market; and some (substantial amount) by fund managers who were hedging (due diligence) because of what's happening in Europe. Those fund managers were blown out of the frame today and they naturally over reacted.  For Europe, the worst outcome is a break up of Euro Zone and letting Italy, Greece and others default.   That would be the most bullish thing for our markets.

All five major indices closed below their 200 D-SMA which is not good.  However, I think a relief rally for SPX to back test the lower line of its recent price channel around 1250 is imminent.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Indices Closing Above Their 200 D-SMA .. That's No Joke In Market Timing

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio 

As of today's close, NAZ, DJI, NDX, OEX and SPX are all trading above their 200 D-SMA's.   That's  no joke in market timing.  Many mathematical timers developed by quants use the 200 D-SMA as a basis to determine probable direction of the underlying trend of indices.   A close above 200 D-SMA turns many timers from "short" to "neutral" or from "neutral" to "long".   That forces short covering and also pushes many money managers to start opening long positions.

Higher we go.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Two Done, Three To Go ((((())))))

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio 

Today NAZ and DJI closed above their 200 D-SMA's.  Big Money pushed the indices down early in the day and got more bears trapped.  I think his traps are full now and I expect Big Money push indices higher tomorrow and cause a major short squeeze over the course of next couple of trading days.

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Big Money Is Setting Up A Big Bear Trap

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio 

Big Money wants to rally indices much higher between now and EOY.  The bull leg that started on Oct 4 has reached the 200 D-SMA resistance.  It's critical that indices cut through that resistance soon and start trading above it.  Once that happens, not only we get massive short covering by doom and gloom crowd, but also fund managers would be forced into opening long positions.

I believe Big Money went to work shortly after close on Friday setting up bear traps to get doom and gloomers add to their shorts.  Big Money boys at ZeroHedge were busy this weekend spreading nonsense ("CME Goes To Collateral DefCon 1.." and "Israel is about to lunch nuclear missiles attack on Iran") all over the web.  With bear traps all loaded now, all Big Money has to do is rally cash indices on Monday via their futures and force a short squeeze which would propel all five major indices above their 200 D-SMA.

Sons of bitches.

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200 Day Simple Moving Average (200 D-SMA)

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio 
 

October powerful rally peaked on 10/27 with NAZ, DJI, SPX nicely trading above their 200 D-SMA's and DJT, RUT testing theirs.  Then Market sold off and all five major indices closed below their 200 D-SMA's and traded there for a few days.  What's happening now is a retest of Market's 200 D-SMA (all five major indices collectively) and it is critical that Market closes above its 200 D-SMA and continues to trade there.  NAZ and DJI closed above their 200 D-SMA's yesterday.  We need to see the remaining three flow suit by early or mid next week (next Friday at the latest) or the bull run would be in trouble.  I am optimistic and believe we see that within the next couple of trading days (even as early as today).

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Endless European Roller Coaster

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio 

 

 

The European roller coaster ride will continue for a while.  Indices will go higher between now and EOY, but in a very news driven and volatile way.  I think any 2% or more drop in indices is a buying opportunities.

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Greeks Are Having Their Greek Way With World Markets

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio 

Per my plan I did my 3rd buy today around SPX 1216.
  

There was hardly any selling of in individual issues today. Action once again for umpteenth time was in the futures. When cash indices  are dragged down as much they were today; and there is hardly any selling of individual issues by Big Money, then you have to wonder what he is thinking. Based on what I have seen lately, he's planning to rally indices much higher between now and EOY.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.