Sunday, September 29, 2013

Another Ugly October?

Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash as of 9/3/2013


As of this writing futures are down around 1%.  Chances are good that SPX gaps down and opens below its 20 and 50 D-SMA tomorrow morning.   A close tomorrow below those moving averages for SPX signals a retest of its Primay Uptrend Line (PUL) around 1660.  A close blew PUL would be bearish and signals a test of 200 D-SMA around 1600, possibly by the end of the week.

I am watching NDX.  If BM starts to unload its high beta holdings (TSLA, NFLX, FB, AMZN ...) to take profit, we should see NDX under performing in the sell off and hence changes of a test of SPX 200 D-SMA would be good.  Otherwise, selling would not go much beyond PUL and it would be a buying opportunity.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change N without notice.
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Sunday, September 22, 2013

Watching Big Money's Sugar Babies and NDX

Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash as of 9/3/2013

RTS-OS Portfolio and Trades (paper trading)
In Cash for now ... this new system needs more improvement via back testing.



Indices are overbought.  Chances are good that the "Fiscal Cliff" sell off that started late last week continues on this coming week.

Question: Is this the beginning of a significant correction (better than 7%) or just a few percent drop in indices and hence a buying opportunity?

To me the best way to answer that questions is to watch high beta Big Money's SB's (TSLA, NFLX, FB, AMZN, ....) and NDX.  If BM's SB's are sold off at high volume and we also see NDX under preforming other major indices, I would conclude that BM is unloading and equities are going to correct significantly.  Otherwise, the "Fiscal Cliff" sell off is just another buying opportunity.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change N without notice.
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Sunday, September 8, 2013

Market Is Sitting On The Edge

Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash as of 9/3/2013

RTS-OS Portfolio and Trades (paper trading)
No Trades for MON 9/9/2013

I follow five major indices, DJI, DJT, NAZ, RUT and SPX.  Below is my way of looking at them and assessing where we are and where we are likely heading:
  
20 D-SMA 50 D-SMA 200 D-SMA
DJI under under over
DJT under under over
NAZ over over over
RUT under under over
SPX under under over


Short and intermediate term, the  picture is quite bearish, but long term it's still a bull market.  I think we are in a neutral environment and Market is sitting on the edge.  Edges are not comfortable places to sit for a long time, so I expect that Market leans in one direction or the other very soon.  It's best to stay in cash and let Market (i.e. Big Money) lead the way.

Another way of assessing indices is to look to see where they are in respect to their Primary Uptred Lines (PUL) and their Primary Downtrend Lines (PDL):


PULPDL
DJIunderunder
DJTnearnear
NAZovernear
RUTovernear
SPXnearunder

My conclusion is that we are looking again at a quite neutral picture, with the potential of turning quite bearish if DJT and SPX break through their PUL's and close below them. That could happen this coming week as uncertainty over Syria and debt ceiling grows.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change N without notice.
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Thursday, September 5, 2013

Trades for Fri September 6, 2013


Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash

RTS-OS Portfolio and Trades 
RTS-OS Covers WLT, JCP and Shorts AGNC, KBH at the open

I have learned from experience that a market that can not be taken down, will go up.  Bears have a small window now to take the indices down, perhaps tomorrow or early next week at the latest.  Otherwise, indices are going to go higher.

I am watching NDX.  There is just no way for the market to go down unless and until high beta issues are taken to the woodshed first.  If I see indices are down, but high fliers are still flying high, then I have to conclude that Big Money is just setting his traps for bears.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change N without notice.
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Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Trades for Wed September 4, 2013

In Cash - Closed all longs at SPX 1649 per plan outlined in previous post

Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - Closed all longs at SPX 1649 per plan outlined in previous post

RTS-OS Portfolio and Trades 
RTS-OS Covers AGNC and Shorts JCP its place at the open 
A note to those who emailed me regarding RTS-OS: RTS-OS is a new trading system and all trades are paper trades.  Furthermore, unlike RTS, RTS-OS does not use a global timing signal.

Rally today was nothing but hedgies covering some of their index futures contracts that had sold short as a "hedge".  BM was back today, but very quiet all day, still assessing which way he wants to push the market.

As of close of today, all indices except for NAZ are trading below their 50 D-SMA.  Chances are good now that we see a decisive sell off in NAZ (specially in high beta issues) soon, maybe tomorrow.  If that does not happen this week, then I think BM is planing a huge rally to skin and roast trapped bears.  For now, it's best to leave the casino, go to the pool with a nice tall cold drink and just watch the action.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change N without notice.
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Monday, September 2, 2013

A Change In Trend ... From Bullish To Neutral

Planning to close all long positions, please see below

Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
Planning to close all long positions, please see below

I follow 5 major indices (NAZ, DJI, RUT, DJT and SPX) closely.  DJI broke its Primary Uptrend Line (PUL) on 8/19 and has been trading below it ever since.  On Friday, DJT broke its PUL and closed below it.  SPX is also trading near its PUL, tested it last Wednesday and again on Friday.   Chances are good that, after a short covering rally on Tuesday, we see SPX to come back and decisively close below its PUL.  That would make 3 out of 5 major indices trading below their PUL's and technically signaling a change in the trend from bullish to neutral.

As of this writing, futures are up by about 1%.  I think chances are good that we SPX rallies tomorrow and tries to back test its 50 D-SMA in upper 1650's.  My plan is to close longs at upper 1640's to lower 1650's, but definitely by the close no matter what.

I have no idea what is gong on with Syria or why we want to get involved and support a bunch of Osama loving fanatics.  For now, Obama has pushed the issue to the Congress which means nothing is going to be decided anytime soon.  Financial markets hate these type of uncertainty and usually drift lower when things are left up in the air.

Reps will surely use Syria to hammer Obama; and when it comes to "debt ceiling", Reps are going to play hardball.  That could tank the bond market, push interest rates significantly higher and cause a major sell off in equity markets.   That's perfectly OK with Reps, because the only way they can win in 2014 / 2016 elections is to have our economy in a deep recession.

We might have a pretty ugly September / October.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change N without notice.
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