Monday, December 29, 2014

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL  
Neutral  as of close of 12/29/2014
 
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
In Cash - closed long positions on 12/29/2014

RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)

SGS Market Timer turned Neutral as of close of today. All long positions were closed today.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Saturday, December 27, 2014

Upside Is Limited - Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014
 
RTS Current Portfolio (2014)
Indices have been following the average seasonal pattern very closely.  They should drift higher on low volume next week.  Chances are good that SPX hits 2100 which would be an overbought level and it would turn SGS Market Timer to from LONG to NEUTRAL.

I'm planning to go back into cash as SPX hits 2100 and then buy long again as SPX corrects very early next year to back test its DTL and 50 D-SMA.

Happy New Year


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Saturday, December 20, 2014

A New All Time High For SPX?

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014
 
RTS Long Term Current Portfolio (2014)
After finding a bottom at 1972 on Tuesday, SPX rocketed up on Wednesday and Thursday punching through its old Primary Downtrend Line (PDL, dashed black line) and Dynamic Trend Line (DTL, 13 D-EMA, thick red).  The rally continued on Friday as SPX got very close to take out its all time high before closing nine points below it.
 
The 5% gain in SPX in three days was due to massive short covering and also massive buying by traders,  myself included, who did not get in when SPX bottomed out at 1820 on October 15.  Those traders were forced to sit out as SPX rallied from 1820 to 2079 without any correction.  When SPX bottomed out on Tuesday, everyone who wanted to be long, got in thinking that SPX would shoot up again like it did before from its October low to its recent all time high earlier this month.

Chances are good that SPX moves higher in a more normal bull leg pattern this time around. There will be ample opportunities to add to long positions along the way because there will be normal profit taking pull backs.  There is a good chance that one of those pull backs is coming our way soon.  I expect SPX to top around 2100 sometime this year.  Then early next year, during the first few trading days, starts to sell off to back test its DTL and possibly its 50 D-SMA around 2030 to 2020.

Per my plan, I did my first buy of four last Wednesday.  I'm planning to go back into cash as SPX hits 2100 and then buy long again as SPX corrects very early next year to back test its DTL and 50 D-SMA.

Seasons Greetings and Happy New Year


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, December 14, 2014

A Bottom Is Near

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs


SPX gained 15% from its low on October 15 to its high on December 5.  Chances are good for SPX to continue to retrace back its advance between 33% to 50% sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Assuming current correction bottoms out somewhere half way between 33% and 50%, gives us SPX 1966 as a good target to start opening long positions.

My plan is to do my first buy of four at SPX 1966.  For now I'm planning to buy SPY, QQQ, XLF and IBB in equal $ amounts.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, December 7, 2014

A Sharp Correction Is Coming

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs

No change since last week, indices are overbought.  I'm still waiting for an entry point.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, November 30, 2014

Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs


No change since last week, indices are overbought.  I'm still waiting for an entry point.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, November 23, 2014

No Change Since Last Week - A Correction Is Coming

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs
 
 
No change since last week, indices are overbought.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, November 16, 2014

A Correction Is Coming

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs
 
No change since last week, indices are overbought.  Chances are are good that a minor sell off starts this coming week.  My plan is to do my first buy of 4 into that sell off.   I am planning to buy SPY and QQQ (equal $ amount).  I'm looking for a test of 2000 and possibly 50 D-SMA on a panic.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, November 9, 2014

BTFD

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs
 
No change since last week, indices are overbought.  Chances are are good that a minor sell off starts this coming week.  My plan is to do my first buy of 4 into that sell off.   I am planning to buy SPY and QQQ (equal $ amount).  I'm looking for a test of 2000 and possibly 50 D-SMA on a panic.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, November 2, 2014

Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash
 
 
Indices are overbought.  Chances are are good that a minor sell off starts this coming week.  My plan is to do my first buy of 4 into that sell off.   I am planning to buy SPY and QQQ (equal $ amount).


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Friday, October 31, 2014

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - updated for recent dividend activities

SGS Market Timer is LONG as of close of  Thursday Oct 30.  SGS is a mechanical timer and it turning from "NEUTRAL" to "LONG" has nothing to do with the BOJ announcement (Last night the Bank of Japan  announced another round of buy larger quantities of government debt in an effort to battle deflation).

Two days ago I posted on my FB page:

"This V-shape recovery since SPX 1820 is either a big bull trap or Janet / Mario are up to something (i.e. another QE)."

"But this is like as if nothing has changed and QE Infinitely is really infinitely long."

"Maybe it is and we're the ones who don't know yet, as usual :)".
I have a hunch that Big Money knew all along about the BOJ announcement, probably since mid October.   We are gonna hear about that when some poor BOJ sap appears on Japaneses TV crying his eyes out (new Japaneses harakiri) and apologizing for leaking information.

I closed my short positions in mid October when SGS switched from SHORT to NEUTRAL. I'm not planning to open long positions today (more on my plans this weekend).


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, October 26, 2014

On Our Way To Another All Time High?

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 10/14/2014
 
RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios


Last week turned out to be pretty ugly, but ugly for bears.  Bulls actually had a really nice week as SPX took back 7.5% of its recent 10% (2019 to 1820) correction.  I believe SPX is on its way to make yet another all time high by the end of this year, but first it needs to retest its recent low (1820) or at least its Primary Uptrend Line (PUL) around 1900.

Chances are good for SPX to test its 50 D-SMA (most significant and immediate resistance) around 1970 early Monday and starts to sell off to retest its supports at 200 D-SMA (1910ish) and possibly PUL (1900ish) later in the week.  Should those two supports fail, chances are good that SPX sells off to retest its recent low around 1820.

A daily close below 100 D-SMA (1960) would turn SGS from NEUTRAL to SHORT.  My plan is to do my first of three short selling of SPY as soon as SGS turns SHORT.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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