Monday, May 26, 2014

A Top Continues To Be Formed

As expected NAZ and RUT out preformed SPX and DJI last week, signaling higher prices ahead.  SPX closed at a new all time high last Friday.  Chances are good that SPX continues its advance this week to mid 1930's.  


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, May 18, 2014

It's 50 - 50


SPX, DJI and DJT jumped early in the week and set all time highs before they lost their gains later in the week.  On Thursday and Friday, RUT successfully tested its April low while all remaining 4 indices were not anywhere close to their April lows.  That divergence is bullish and signals a high probability that a bottom for RUT has been put in.

Chances are good that SPX rallies pass its PDL and challenges its recent high around 1900.  Chances are also good that we we see NAZ and RUT rally along side of SPX as it reaches 1900 again.   What happens after that depends on whether or not NAZ and RUT significantly out perform SPX.  If they do, chances are good that rally continues to SPX 1925, otherwise all major indices would be heading south.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, May 11, 2014

SPX Is Ready To Jump


Chances are good that a top is being formed, but that process still has another 30 to 40 trading days (1.5 to 2 calender months)  to go before it's complete.  In the meantime, we should see new all time highs for large cap indices.  DJI, the king of large cap indices, is leading the way as it put in a new all time closing high on Friday.  SPX and DJT are not that far behind and very likely would put in new highs sometime this coming week.

I'm watching NDX and especially momentum stocks (i.e. AAPL, TSLA, NFLX, BIIB, ALXN, WYNN, FB ....) of that index.  The topping process is complete when we see fresh new highs for NDX while momentum stocks rally and get close to their old highs.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, May 4, 2014

Is A Top Being Formed?

Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios


SPX is very likely going to punch through Neck Bank this coming week.  A daily close above 1895 would signal a swift move to 1925 initially and 1960 probably by mid May.

In the last two months, large caps have been substantially out performing small caps.  If out performance by large caps continues, chances are good that we would see large cap indices (i.e. DJI, SPX and NDX) peak into a bubble sometime in late June or early July.  Bursting that bubble would cause a significant correction (15% to 30%) in all indices by Sep / Oct 2014.
 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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