Friday, October 31, 2014

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - updated for recent dividend activities

SGS Market Timer is LONG as of close of  Thursday Oct 30.  SGS is a mechanical timer and it turning from "NEUTRAL" to "LONG" has nothing to do with the BOJ announcement (Last night the Bank of Japan  announced another round of buy larger quantities of government debt in an effort to battle deflation).

Two days ago I posted on my FB page:

"This V-shape recovery since SPX 1820 is either a big bull trap or Janet / Mario are up to something (i.e. another QE)."

"But this is like as if nothing has changed and QE Infinitely is really infinitely long."

"Maybe it is and we're the ones who don't know yet, as usual :)".
I have a hunch that Big Money knew all along about the BOJ announcement, probably since mid October.   We are gonna hear about that when some poor BOJ sap appears on Japaneses TV crying his eyes out (new Japaneses harakiri) and apologizing for leaking information.

I closed my short positions in mid October when SGS switched from SHORT to NEUTRAL. I'm not planning to open long positions today (more on my plans this weekend).


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, October 26, 2014

On Our Way To Another All Time High?

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 10/14/2014
 
RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios


Last week turned out to be pretty ugly, but ugly for bears.  Bulls actually had a really nice week as SPX took back 7.5% of its recent 10% (2019 to 1820) correction.  I believe SPX is on its way to make yet another all time high by the end of this year, but first it needs to retest its recent low (1820) or at least its Primary Uptrend Line (PUL) around 1900.

Chances are good for SPX to test its 50 D-SMA (most significant and immediate resistance) around 1970 early Monday and starts to sell off to retest its supports at 200 D-SMA (1910ish) and possibly PUL (1900ish) later in the week.  Should those two supports fail, chances are good that SPX sells off to retest its recent low around 1820.

A daily close below 100 D-SMA (1960) would turn SGS from NEUTRAL to SHORT.  My plan is to do my first of three short selling of SPY as soon as SGS turns SHORT.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, October 19, 2014

Another Ugly Week Is Coming Up

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 10/14/2014
 
RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios


Sell off accelerated last week as SPX broke its price channel on Monday and started trading below its 200 D-SMA.  After testing its Primary Uptrend Line (PUL) on Monday and Tuesday, SPX broke through it and started trading below it for two days.  On Friday indices rallied and SPX managed to close above PUL. 

Repeated blows to PUL and trading below it for two days is significant and there will be consequences.  There is a good chance for SPX to rally on Monday to back test its 200 D-SMA around 1905 before it sells off dramatically again.  If that happens, SGS Market Timer would change from "NEUTRAL" to "SHORT".  My plan is to open first of three short positions in SPY, QQQ and IWM sometime on Monday.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Tuesday, October 14, 2014

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 10/14/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios


SGS Market Timer is NEUTRAL as of close of Tuesday Oct 14.  I closed some short positions yesterday and today.  I'm going to close all shorts positions early tomorrow.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, October 12, 2014

Short Term Indices Are Oversold

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT 
Short as of close of 9/12/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios


SPX came very close to test its 200 D-SMA last Friday.   Also on Friday the number of new lows for many time frames (i.e. 252 to 7 day) sky rocketed to levels not seen since early 2009. That kind of jump in number of new lows signals two things:
  1. Short term indices are oversold and a bounce is coming.
  2. The bottom for the current sell off that started on Fri September 9/19 is nowhere in sight.
So out it's out with BTFD and in with STFP going forward for foreseeable future. Of course this would all change if the Fed intervenes, but that's not going to be anytime soon, not at least until we get a 10% to 20% correction and things start to look bleak economically (i.e. shrinking GDP).

Chances are excellent for SPX to sell off to test its Primary Uptrend Line (PUL) around 1880 on Monday.  PUL is strongest support that there is. It has shouldered the entire bull run since March 2009. It won't come down that easily. It will take at least 2 or 3 big blows, first which is very likely going to be delivered tomorrow. 

A shallow penetration of PUL and rebound to close above 200 D-SMA tomorrow would turn SGS timer back to "NEUTRAL".  My plan is to close shorts sometime tomorrow, hopefully at the low of the day.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Saturday, October 4, 2014

Another Ugly Week Is Ahead

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT 
Short as of close of 9/12/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios



SPX is now trading in a well defined down trending channel.  On Friday SPX rallied and tested the upper channel line which happens to be Primary Downtrend Line (PDL).  Chances are excellent that selling starts again and SPX continues its decline within its price channel.

Last week as SPX sold off, it broke through and traded below two long term Active Uptrend Lines (AUL, shown in thick orange).  Price violation of those AUL's is significant because they have been shouldering the bull run since Nov 2012 and Oct 2011, respectively.   SPX very likely tests and closes below those lines again sometime this coming week.  That would signal additional selling for SPX to test its 200 D-SMA around 1900.  A close below 1900 for SPX before midterm election would signal two things:

  • Democrats are going to lose the Senate.

  • A test of Primary Uptrend Line (PUL) for SPX around 1880 is highly likely.  PUL support would likely hold and indices would rebound on the back of Reps victory and short covering.  The rebound would be short lived as we enter into an at least two year bear market.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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