Sunday, December 27, 2015

Selling Will Resume This Coming Week Or Next

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of close of 12/11/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)

The three day strong rally in SPX was finally stopped by the stiff triple (50, 200 D-SMA and ADL) resistance on Thursday.   SPX is now sandwiched by its active trend lines in a symmetric triangular formation.  How SPX break out of its triangular formation will signal further move in that direction.   My guess is that SPX will eventually break to the downside and continue its selling. 

Chances are good that SPX sells off early next week to test its DTL around 2050, then there is a slight chance that SPX rallies for a false break out of its symmetric triangular formation before heading lower for a true break out.  Price objective for the symmetric triangular formation is around SPX 1845 by mid to late January 2016.

My Plan:
 
My plan is to open my second short position sometime this coming week.

Season's Greetings and Happy New Year

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, December 20, 2015

After A Brief Pause, Selling Very Likely Continues

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of close of 12/11/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
Updated for recent trades
SPX is now trading below its 200, 100, 50 D-SMA's and 13 D-EMA.  Last time SPX went below those moving averages was August 20 and then SPX sold off another 8% (8.25%) in the following three trading sessions.  Chances of similar sell off happening next week is slim, the last two weeks of December are seasonably very bullish.  My guess is that SPX very likely sells off early Monday morning to test PDL-1 around 1985, followed up by a one or two day rally to back test SPX 2000, AUL and probably SPX 2020 - 2040 resistance zone.   After that brief rally, I expect selling to resume.

My Plan:
 
Per my plan I opened my first of four short positions in SPY (I'm shorting only SPY) on Friday.  My plan is to open my 2nd short position sometime early next week as SPX rallies to test resistance range of 2020 - 2040.  Should SPX continues selling without a counter trend rally, my plan is to add to my short position if SPX closes below 1970.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, December 13, 2015

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of close of 12/11/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)

SPX traded as lows as 2008.80 on Friday and closed (weekly) below the significant support at 2020.  The penetration through 2020 support was less than 1% (0.55%) which signals a high likelihood of a back test of that support soon, possibly on Monday.  Also, as we enter into the most bullish trading period of the year, chances are good that SPX rallies on the back of short covering and dip buying to test its ADL around 2060 later in the week. 

For SPX, weekly immediate support zone is at 2000 - 1975 and weekly immediate resistance zone is at 2020 - 2060.

My Plan:
 
My plan is to open first of four short positions in SPX and IWM as SPX back test 2020, very likely on Monday.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, December 6, 2015

High Volatility Continues - SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of close of 12/03/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)

SPX tested its 200 D-SMA on Thursday and closed below it by more than 1%.  At this point, chances are high that high volatility seen in the last few trading days continues this coming week.

For SPX, weekly immediate support zone is at 2040 - 2020 and weekly immediate resistance zone is at 2100 - 2110.

My Plan:

I am still in cash and planning to start opening long positions should SPX take out its all time high (2134.72) and close above 2150 or opening short positions should SPX close below 2020.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, November 29, 2015

SPX Is Likely To Test Its 200 D-SMA

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/23/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)


There is a good chance that SPX sells off and tests its 200 D-SMA around 2065 this week.  A daily close below 200 D-SMA would signal more selling ahead.

My Plan:

No change since last week, I am still in cash and planning to start opening long positions should SPX take out its all time high (2134.72) or opening short positions should SPX close below 2000.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, November 22, 2015

Breadth Indicators Are Deteriorating

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/23/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)


SPX rallied nearly 4% last week, but everyday breadth indicators deteriorated.  Unless and until at least three of five major indices (DJI, DJT, NAZ, RUT and SPX) take out their all time highs, chances are high that the rally since late September lows is nothing but a counterrend rally.

Bull Case:

A daily close above AUL-1 would signal that the sell off is over and SPX is on its way higher to new highs.

Bear Case: 

A daily close this week below 2020 for SPX would signal a high likelihood of a test of 2000 level.  A daily close below 2000 would signal more selling ahead to test September and August lows.

My Plan:

I am in cash now and planning to start opening long positions should SPX take out its all time high (2134.72) or opening short positions should SPX close below 2000.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, November 15, 2015

SPX Is Near Critical Support 2020

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/23/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)

SPX is very likely going to test 2020 level on Monday.  I expect a good bounce off of 2020 back up to back testing of 100 D-SMA around 2035 and possibly ADL-1 around 2050 by the middle of the week.

Bull Case:

A daily close above AUL-1 would signal that the sell off is over and SPX is on its way higher to new highs.

Bear Case: 

A daily close this week below 2020 for SPX would signal a high likelihood of a test of 2000 level.  A daily close below 2000 would signal more selling ahead to test September and August lows.

My Plan:

I am in cash now and planning to start opening long positions should SPX take out its all time high (2134.72) or opening short positions should SPX close below 2000.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, November 8, 2015

Rally Since September 29 Has Probably Ended

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/23/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
In Cash - Updated for recent trades
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)


Last Friday marked the first time that SPX put in lower highs, lower lows and lower closes three days in a row since September 29 when the recent sharp rally started.  Also last Friday marked the 2nd day that SPX traded below its AUL-1.

At this point, chances are good that SPX sells off to test supports at its AUL-0 and DTL around 2085 early this coming week.  A close below those supports would signal a high likelihood of further selling for SPX to back test its 200 D-SMA around 2065.

Immediate resistance for SPX is at its ADL-0 around 2105, then at its TDL around 2115 and finally at its PDL-0 around 2129.

My Plan:

I closed all remaining short positions on Friday.  I am in cash now and planning to start opening long positions should SPX take out its all time high (2134.72).

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, November 1, 2015

SPX Is To Back Test Its 200 D-SMA

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/23/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015) 
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)



Chances are good that SPX sells off to back test its 200 D-SMA around 2060 early this coming week.  If SPX penetrates its 200 D-SMA by 1% or more, then it would very likely continues its decline to test its DLT, 100 D-SMA and PDL-1.

My Plan:

I'm still planning to covered all remaining short positions as SPX sells off to back test its PDL-1 around 2020.  Should SPX continue to move up, I would cover if SPX close above 2100.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, October 25, 2015

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/23/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
Updated for recent trades
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)

SGS Market Timer is LONG as of close of Friday 10/23/2015.

Where Are We Heading Longer Term (Weeks)?


SPX has reached a double resistance (PDL-1 and PUL-1) on its monthly chart.  Chances are good that SPX sells off to test its DTL before heading higher.
 
Where Are We Heading Shorter Term (Days)?


SPX punched through 2035-2045 resistance zone and its 200 D-SMA last week on the back of good earnings (GOOGL, MSFT and AMZN), more QE (ECB) and a "surprise" interest rate cut (BOC).  

At this point, indices are overbought and chances are good that they sell off late this coming week to back test important old resistances that now would act as supports.  For SPX, a sell off to back test 200 D-SMA (2060), 100 D-SMA and PDL-1 (2035) is very likely.

My Plan:

Per my plan I covered 1/2 of my short position last week (Friday).  I'm going to covered all remaining short positions as SPX sells off to back test its PDL-1 around 2035.  Should SPX continue to move up, I would cover if SPX closes above 2100.

twitter

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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