Sunday, January 25, 2015

Highly Volatile Week Is Coming Up

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT 
Short as of close of 1/20/2015
Updated for recent trades



The upside for indices is limited.  Chances are good that SPX has already started its 10% to 15% correction from its peak of 2094 (12/29/2014) .  

My plan is to add to shorts if SPX closes below 2020.  Also, I would cover shorts should SPX rally and closes above 2070.


SPX: S&P 500 Index
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index
RUT: Russell 2000 Index
OEX: S&P 100 Index
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index 
D-SMA : Daily - Simple Moving Average
D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
PDL : Primary Downtrend Line
PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
ADL: Active Downtrend Line
AUL: Active Uptrend Line
DTL: Dynamic Trend Line

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Tuesday, January 20, 2015

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT 
Short as of close of 1/20/2015
 
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
Updated for new trades

RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)
SGS Market Timer turned SHORT as of close of today. New short positions were opened per my plan.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Saturday, January 17, 2015

"Je suis une dinde complètement cuit "

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL  
Neutral as of close of 12/29/2014

RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
In Cash



Our almost six year bull market is done, we can put a big fork in it :) .

SPX will very likely rally next week on the back of "European QE" to test the triple resistance (50 D-SMA, PDL and AUL) around SPX 2045.  If that test fails, I believe SPX would sell off to test support at SPX 2000.  Should SPX closes below 2000 next Friday, a 10% sell off to test last October low (SPX 1820) is highly likely.

I'm still in cash.  I'm planning to do my first short  selling of four on Tuesday or Wednesday as after SPX fails to close above its triple resistance level (SPX 2045).  For now, my plan is to do more short sells after a daily close below SPX 2020 and SPX 2000.  I'm shorting SPY, IWM, QQQ and DIA (equal $ amount).



SPX: S&P 500 Index
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index
RUT: Russell 2000 Index
OEX: S&P 100 Index
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index 
D-SMA : Daily - Simple Moving Average
D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
PDL : Primary Downtrend Line
PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
ADL: Active Downtrend Line
AUL: Active Uptrend Line
DTL: Dynamic Trend Line

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

on

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Is A Bottom Near?

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL  
Neutral as of close of 12/29/2014

RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
In Cash



I don't know if a bottom is near.  Maybe what's happening now is nothing but a healthy correction in our almost six year bull market.  Here are two scenarios that I'm considering:

  • Bear Case (70% imo): SPX sells off early this coming week to test support at 2020.  A daily close below SPX 2020 would signal a move to test strong support at 2000.  If SPX starts to trade below 2000, I believe chances are good that SPX sells off significantly, maybe around 10%, in a few weeks.

  • Bull Case (30% imo): Support at SPX 2020 holds and SPX rallies to close above its 50 D-SMA and its PDL. SPX continues higher to put in a new all time high.
As posted on my FB page, I did not open any long positions last week as I had planned.  I'm in cash and for now just watching indices from the sideline.


SPX: S&P 500 Index
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index
RUT: Russell 2000 Index
OEX: S&P 100 Index
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index 
D-SMA : Daily - Simple Moving Average
D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
PDL : Primary Downtrend Line
PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
ADL: Active Downtrend Line
AUL: Active Uptrend Line
DTL: Dynamic Trend Line

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.


on

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Hello 2015

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL  
Neutral as of close of 12/29/2014

RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
In Cash


SPX put in a new all time high last Monday. Since then, it has been selling off.  Chances are good that SPX rallies this coming Monday to test its PDL around 2075.  Should SPX fail to break through and close below its PDL, SPX would very likely sells off again to test its 50 D-SMA around 2035.  A close below 50 D-SMA would signal more selling to test AUL somewhere between 2030 to 2020.

My plan is to open long positions as SPX reaches 2030 to 2020.  I'm doing my first buy of three.  I'm buying SPY, QQQ, XLF, IBB and XLK (equal $ amounts).


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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