Sunday, February 22, 2015

Major Indices At All Time Highs .. Bullish

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of close of 2/11/2015
 
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)


Short term, indices are at extreme overbought level.  Longer term, indices are bullish:
  • Bull Case (99%): SPX consolidates its recent gain this week and continues its rally higher to set  new all time highs.  Chances are good that SPX sells off this coming week to test its DTL (around 2080) and possibly its 50 D-SMA around 2050.  Those would be good targets to open new long positions.

  • Bear Case (1%): SPX sells off early this coming week and starts a 10% to 15% correction from its recent high within the next few weeks.

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Monday, February 16, 2015

Short Term, Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of close of 2/11/2015

RTS Current Portfolio (2015)


Short term, indices are over bought.  Longer term it's 50-50:
  • Bear Case (50%): SPX sells off early this coming week and starts a 10% to 15% correction from its recent high within the next few weeks.

  • Bull Case (50%): SPX consolidates its recent gain this week and continues its rally higher to set  new all time highs.

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

SGS Market Timer turned NEUTRAL

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of close of 2/11/2015
 
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
Updated for recent trades

RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)

SGS Market Timer turned NEUTRAL as of close of today. Short positions were closed today.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, February 8, 2015

The Big Picture Becomes More Obscure

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT 
Short as of close of 1/20/2015
 
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)


Despite a weekly close below SPX 2000 on Friday 1/30 (albeit with little penetration, 5 points or 0.25%), SPX rallied on the back of extraordinary strong seasonality this past week to close above its 50 D-SMA and PDL .  The facts that (1) the psychologically and technically significant support at SPX 2000 held; and (2) SPX managed to close above its 50 D-SMA and PDL make it hard to assess where indices are heading now.  Here's my best guess:
  • Bear Case (75%): SPX sells off early this coming week and penetrates 2000 and closes significantly below it (1% or more).  That would signal an excellent chance of more selling to test 200 D-SMA (SPX 1980) and PUL's (around SPX 1900).

  • Bull Case (25%): SPX back tests its 50 D-SMA and PDL before rallying to put in a new all time high.
A daily close above 2065 would be a signal to me to cover short positions.  A daily close below 2000 would be a signal to add more short positions.

I've been a full time trader since 1997 when I quit my aerospace engineering job.  I clearly remember the period from October 1999 to March 2000.  What's happening now is very similar to what was happening then.  Indices (especially NDX) rallied strongly from mid Oct 1999 to Dec 31 1999, they sold off in Jan 2000, rallied back strongly in the first trading week of  Feb 2000, the sold off again for the remaining three weeks of Feb 2000 before strongly rallying to put in all time highs by late March of 2000 (NAZ 5000). 

I wonder if the same thing is happening.  SPX rallied dramatically from Oct 20, 2014 to its all time high on Dec 29, 2014.  Then it sold for in Jan 2015 and rallied the first week of Feb 2015.  If SPX is going to continue to follow its early 2000 pattern, it should sell off from now until late Feb  to early Mar 2015.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, February 1, 2015

The Blue Line In The Sand

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT 
Short as of close of 1/20/2015
 
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)


There is an ominous looking Head and Shoulders Top (H&S Top) formation on the SPX daily chart.  The neckline for that formation was tested four times last month and it held.   Last Friday, SPX tested the neckline again and closed right on it which was incidentally a weekly close below 2000 since late October 2014. 
  • Bear Case (90% imo): SPX sells off early this coming week and penetrates the neckline and closes below it.  That would signal an excellent chance of more selling to test 200 D-SMA (SPX 1975) and PUL's (around SPX 1900).

  • Bull Case (10% imo): Support at the neckline holds and SPX rallies to close above its 50 D-SMA on the back of extraordinarily strong seasonality.
As a trader I have to go with the better odds.  My plan is to do my 2nd round of short selling, but only in SPX and QQQ (equal $ amounts) early Monday morning.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)