Sunday, November 29, 2015

SPX Is Likely To Test Its 200 D-SMA

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/23/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)


There is a good chance that SPX sells off and tests its 200 D-SMA around 2065 this week.  A daily close below 200 D-SMA would signal more selling ahead.

My Plan:

No change since last week, I am still in cash and planning to start opening long positions should SPX take out its all time high (2134.72) or opening short positions should SPX close below 2000.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, November 22, 2015

Breadth Indicators Are Deteriorating

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/23/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)


SPX rallied nearly 4% last week, but everyday breadth indicators deteriorated.  Unless and until at least three of five major indices (DJI, DJT, NAZ, RUT and SPX) take out their all time highs, chances are high that the rally since late September lows is nothing but a counterrend rally.

Bull Case:

A daily close above AUL-1 would signal that the sell off is over and SPX is on its way higher to new highs.

Bear Case: 

A daily close this week below 2020 for SPX would signal a high likelihood of a test of 2000 level.  A daily close below 2000 would signal more selling ahead to test September and August lows.

My Plan:

I am in cash now and planning to start opening long positions should SPX take out its all time high (2134.72) or opening short positions should SPX close below 2000.

twitter

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, November 15, 2015

SPX Is Near Critical Support 2020

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/23/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)

SPX is very likely going to test 2020 level on Monday.  I expect a good bounce off of 2020 back up to back testing of 100 D-SMA around 2035 and possibly ADL-1 around 2050 by the middle of the week.

Bull Case:

A daily close above AUL-1 would signal that the sell off is over and SPX is on its way higher to new highs.

Bear Case: 

A daily close this week below 2020 for SPX would signal a high likelihood of a test of 2000 level.  A daily close below 2000 would signal more selling ahead to test September and August lows.

My Plan:

I am in cash now and planning to start opening long positions should SPX take out its all time high (2134.72) or opening short positions should SPX close below 2000.

twitter

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, November 8, 2015

Rally Since September 29 Has Probably Ended

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/23/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
In Cash - Updated for recent trades
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)


Last Friday marked the first time that SPX put in lower highs, lower lows and lower closes three days in a row since September 29 when the recent sharp rally started.  Also last Friday marked the 2nd day that SPX traded below its AUL-1.

At this point, chances are good that SPX sells off to test supports at its AUL-0 and DTL around 2085 early this coming week.  A close below those supports would signal a high likelihood of further selling for SPX to back test its 200 D-SMA around 2065.

Immediate resistance for SPX is at its ADL-0 around 2105, then at its TDL around 2115 and finally at its PDL-0 around 2129.

My Plan:

I closed all remaining short positions on Friday.  I am in cash now and planning to start opening long positions should SPX take out its all time high (2134.72).

twitter

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, November 1, 2015

SPX Is To Back Test Its 200 D-SMA

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/23/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015) 
RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)



Chances are good that SPX sells off to back test its 200 D-SMA around 2060 early this coming week.  If SPX penetrates its 200 D-SMA by 1% or more, then it would very likely continues its decline to test its DLT, 100 D-SMA and PDL-1.

My Plan:

I'm still planning to covered all remaining short positions as SPX sells off to back test its PDL-1 around 2020.  Should SPX continue to move up, I would cover if SPX close above 2100.

twitter

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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