Selling Will Resume This Coming Week Or Next

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 

SHORT as of close of 12/11/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)

RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)
 

The three day strong rally in SPX was finally stopped by the stiff triple (50, 200 D-SMA and ADL) resistance on Thursday.   SPX is now sandwiched by its active trend lines in a symmetric triangular formation.  How SPX break out of its triangular formation will signal further move in that direction.   My guess is that SPX will eventually break to the downside and continue its selling. 

Chances are good that SPX sells off early next week to test its DTL around 2050, then there is a slight chance that SPX rallies for a false break out of its symmetric triangular formation before heading lower for a true break out.  Price objective for the symmetric triangular formation is around SPX 1845 by mid to late January 2016.

My Plan:
 

My plan is to open my second short position sometime this coming week.

Season's Greetings and Happy New Year

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

After A Brief Pause, Selling Very Likely Continues

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 

SHORT as of close of 12/11/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)

Updated for recent trades

RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)

SPX is now trading below its 200, 100, 50 D-SMA's and 13 D-EMA.  Last time SPX went below those moving averages was August 20 and then SPX sold off another 8% (8.25%) in the following three trading sessions.  Chances of similar sell off happening next week is slim, the last two weeks of December are seasonably very bullish.  My guess is that SPX very likely sells off early Monday morning to test PDL-1 around 1985, followed up by a one or two day rally to back test SPX 2000, AUL and probably SPX 2020 - 2040 resistance zone.   After that brief rally, I expect selling to resume.

My Plan:
 

Per my plan I opened my first of four short positions in SPY (I'm shorting only SPY) on Friday.  My plan is to open my 2nd short position sometime early next week as SPX rallies to test resistance range of 2020 - 2040.  Should SPX continues selling without a counter trend rally, my plan is to add to my short position if SPX closes below 1970.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 

SHORT as of close of 12/11/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)

RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)

SPX traded as lows as 2008.80 on Friday and closed (weekly) below the significant support at 2020.  The penetration through 2020 support was less than 1% (0.55%) which signals a high likelihood of a back test of that support soon, possibly on Monday.  Also, as we enter into the most bullish trading period of the year, chances are good that SPX rallies on the back of short covering and dip buying to test its ADL around 2060 later in the week. 

For SPX, weekly immediate support zone is at 2000 - 1975 and weekly immediate resistance zone is at 2020 - 2060.

My Plan:
 

My plan is to open first of four short positions in SPX and IWM as SPX back test 2020, very likely on Monday.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

High Volatility Continues - SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 

NEUTRAL as of close of 12/03/2015
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)

RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)

SPX tested its 200 D-SMA on Thursday and closed below it by more than 1%.  At this point, chances are high that high volatility seen in the last few trading days continues this coming week.

For SPX, weekly immediate support zone is at 2040 - 2020 and weekly immediate resistance zone is at 2100 - 2110.

My Plan:

I am still in cash and planning to start opening long positions should SPX take out its all time high (2134.72) and close above 2150 or opening short positions should SPX close below 2020.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.