Going Back To Tried And True

Going Back to Old SGS_LT Timer

Sometime in early 2015 I changed SGS Market Timer from a lagging market timer to a leading market timer.  That was a mistake and I'm going back to old SGS.

Generally speaking, lagging timers work well in a trending market and leading timers work well in a trading market.  When I switched to a leading market timer in 2015, my expectation was that indices would stay in a narrow trading range.  What actually has happened since Oct 2014 is that indices have traded in a relatively wide trading range, but up and down swings within that range have been quite sharp and trending.

I am slowly getting back into the swing of things.  I have no plan for now to post on daily basis, unless something significant happens.   I will have my regular weekend post on my blog (updated usually on Sundays) and hopefully with charts and analysis starting next weekend.

Long Term Outlook (Weeks to Months):

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 

Long as of close of  March 18, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer

Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Indices are quite overbought and I expect a sizable sell off sometime this coming week.

My Plan:

My plan is to close my long term short positions.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Weekend ... April 2-3, 2016

It's Going To Be Earnings And Forecast

If earnings and outlook are good, then SPX would very likely rally to take out its all time high (2134) and go up much higher.  If earnings and outlook are disappointing, then SPX would very likely sell off to take out its recent lows (around 1800) and go substantially lower.

Long Term Outlook (Weeks to Months):

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  SHORT 

Short as of close of Dec 11, 2015
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer

Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

No change since last weekend update.

Short Term Outlook (Days to  to Weeks):

sgs_st  Market Timer Status:  short 

Short as of  1:00 PM on Feb 18, 2016

sgs_st is a Short Term (hours to days) Timer

No change since last weekend update.

MY Plan:

No change since last weekend update.  I'm taking a couple of weeks off.  I'm travelling.

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Friday ... April 01, 2016

SGS_LT  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 

Short as of close of Dec 11, 2015
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) timer

Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)

Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

sgs_st  Market Timer Status:  short 

Short as of  1:00 PM on Feb 18, 2016

sgs_st  is a short term (hours to days) timer for SPX

If you like this blog and find it useful, then please help me get more traffic to it.  Please spread the word. Thank You. 

@  09:10 - Support: 2050
                  Resistance:  2065

     

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.