Waiting For Market To Make The First Move

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer Term Outlook

The Positives:

• As of close of Friday, SPX has been trading above its bull flag (thick green above) for four consecutive weeks.  Chances are good that SPX continues its rally for another 300 points between now and the presidential election.
• Q2 earnings are meeting or beating expectations.
• Chances of a rate hike this year is slim to none.
• Trump's ship is beginning to take on water. I'm watching to see if the rats start fleeing that ship.  Chances are good that if Trump's poll numbers fall significantly  (25 points or more) behind Clinton's in swing states, he would suspend his campaign and quit the race ... "it's all rigged ... they're not nice to me ...  I'm not interested anymore ... frankly, I don't need this, I'm really rich ... ".

The Negatives:

• Q2 GDP was anemic (1.2%) and Q1 GDP was revised down to less than 1%.
  
• Durable Goods Orders fell by 4% for a second straight month in June.
• Clinton's unfavorable rating remains at historic high levels despite DNC's very successful convention.

Shorter Term Outlook

No change since last week, indices are quite overbought.  SPX, for example, has rallied 20% since mid February.  Chances are good that SPX sells off this coming week to back test its PDL-0 which resisted any advance by SPX for over a year.  PDL-0 should now act as a strong support when it's tested.

My Plan

My plan still is to open long positions in SPY.  I'm planning to open my first of three long positions in SPY sometime this week as SPX sells off to test its PDL-0 around 2120.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer Term Outlook

From early March of 2009 to mid May of 2015, SPX gained 220% (666 to 2134). Then SPX traded in a 300 point trading range for over a year until two weeks ago when it pulled out of that range (a possible bull flag shown in green) and resumed its 7 year rally.  At the point chances are good that SPX continues its rally for another 300 points to SPX 2400 between now and the 2016 presidential election (sorry Donald, Market says that you will fail again).

Shorter Term Outlook

Shorter term, indices are quite overbought.  SPX, for example, has rallied 20% since mid February.  Chances are good that SPX sells off this coming week to back test its PDL-0 which resisted any advance by SPX for over a year.  PDL-0 should now act as a strong support when it's tested.

My Plan
 

My plan is open long positions in SPY.  I'm planning to open my first of three long positions in SPY sometime this week as SPX sells off to test its PDL-0 around 2120.

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Are Bulls Back?

Charts Say YES

As of close of Friday, three (DJI, SPX and RUT) of five major indices (3 mentioned plus NAZ and DJT) are trading above their PDL-0.  That is bullish and at this point chances are good that major indices continue their rally for a while.  Shorter term, however, indices are quite overbought and chances are good that indices sell off early next week before resuming their advance higher.

For SPX, shown above, chances are good that we see a sell off to back test PDL-0 around 2130 to 2110.  I'm going to be watching SPX to see how it trades in that 20 point support range and make a decision as to opening long positions.

SGS_LT Market Timer Status: NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL as of close of  July 8, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer

Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015) 

My Plan: 
 

Last week on Monday, SPX closed at a new all time high.  Per my plan I covered my short positions on Tuesday.  I'm in cash and looking for to open new my first of three long positions in SPY as SPX sells off to back tests its PDL-0 probably early this coming week.

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SPX Is Within Five Points From Its All Time High

Employment data on Friday caused a massive short covering which pushed SPX to close near its all time high.  Chances are good that SPX continues its rally after a brief sell off to back test its AUL and PDL-0 around 2120 sometime on Monday or Tuesday. 

Also on Friday, gold rallied to close at a two year high while 10 year treasury yields dropped to all time lows.  Last two times (August of 2000 and January of 2008) that similar rallies in gold and bonds occurred simultaneously were just prior to significant market corrections.

SGS_LT Market Timer Status: NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL as of close of  July 8, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015) 

My Plan: 
 

My plan is to close my short positions should SPX rally and put in a new all time closing high.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Indices Are Overbought

SPX Support Zone 2060-2050

SPX is overbought and chances are excellent that it would sell off to test support zone 2060 - 2050 sometime this coming week.

SGS_LT Market Timer Status: SHORT

SHORT as of close of  June 24, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015) 

My Plan: 
 

My plan is open my last and final short position should SPX closes below 2000.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.