Sunday, July 24, 2016

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer Term Outlook


From early March of 2009 to mid May of 2015, SPX gained 220% (666 to 2134). Then SPX traded in a 300 point trading range for over a year until two weeks ago when it pulled out of that range (a possible bull flag shown in green) and resumed its 7 year rally.  At the point chances are good that SPX continues its rally for another 300 points to SPX 2400 between now and the 2016 presidential election (sorry Donald, Market says that you will fail again).

Shorter Term Outlook


Shorter term, indices are quite overbought.  SPX, for example, has rallied 20% since mid February.  Chances are good that SPX sells off this coming week to back test its PDL-0 which resisted any advance by SPX for over a year.  PDL-0 should now act as a strong support when it's tested.

My Plan
 
My plan is open long positions in SPY.  I'm planning to open my first of three long positions in SPY sometime this week as SPX sells off to test its PDL-0 around 2120.

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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