Saturday, March 25, 2017

Market On The Razor's Edge

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

SGS ticked lower for the week, signaling more selling head.  It seems, however, that everything including financial markets, is sitting on the razor's edge and could easily fall on one side or the other.

If Trump's Russiagate starts to snowball, then we should see SGS cross its zero line and turn "SHORT". In that case, a good chunk (7% to 10%) of fluff would come out of major indices.

Short-Term (days to weeks) Outlook

SPX broke out of its narrow trading range to the downside last week.  Shorter term, chances are good that selling picks up momentum this coming week and SPX tests its 50 D-SMA around 2330 and possibly its Old-ADL around 2300 to 2260 depending on how aggressive selling becomes. 

Long-Term (weeks to months) Outlook

If Russiagate develops legs, then chances are hight that SPX sells off to test its PUL-2 around 2230 and possibly its 50 W-SMA around 2200. 

My Plan

No change since last week, I am going to follow SGS and start buying SPY if SGS starts to uptick and closes above its DTL. If SGS continues lower and crosses its zero line and turns "SHORT", I would start opening short positions in SPX by buying SH.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

 Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, March 19, 2017

The Calm Before The Storm

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

SGS ticked higher for the third day in a row, that's bullish. If SGS closes above its DTL (shown in red), I would buy my first buy in my long portfolio (SPY).

Short-Term (days to weeks) Outlook

Shorter term, SPX is range-bound by its trendlines.  There is an excellent chance, however, that SPX exits its relatively narrow trading range soon.  I have no idea which way SPX breaks out.  I'm letting SPX make the first move and then I'll follow. 

Long-Term (weeks to months) Outlook

We're experiencing the calm before the storm.  I don't know which way SPX is going to breakout.  Patience.

My Plan

I am going to follow SGS and start buying SPY if SGS starts to uptick and closes above its DTL. If SGS reverses and starts to go lower, cross zero line and turns short, I would start opening short positions in SPX by buying SH.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, March 12, 2017

Selling Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS continued to put in lower highs last week for the second week in a row since SPX put in a fresh all-time high (2400.98). If selling accelerates, SGS would cross zero line and turn SHORT sometime this week.

Short-Term (days to weeks) Outlook



Shorter term, despite selling since March 1, indices are still overbought.  Chances are good that SPX continues going lower this coming week and tests of its PUL-3 around 2350.

Long-Term (weeks to months) Outlook


Longer term, chances are good that SPX continues to sell-off and test its AUL around 2340 sometime this coming week and then its W-DTL around 2310.

My Plan

I am going to follow SGS and start buying SPY if SGS starts to uptick and closes above its ADL. If SGS continues to go lower and turns short, I would start opening short positions in SPX by buying SH.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, March 5, 2017

Selling Very Likely Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS continued to put in lower highs last week, signaling that the sell-off that started last Thursday very likely continues.

Two things could happen now: 
  1. SGS continues going lower until it crosses and closes below zero line. A close below zero line would turn SGS from LONG to SHORT.
  2. SGS turns back up and closes above its DTL and ADL which would signal that the correction is very likely over.

Short-Term (hours to days) Outlook


Shorter term, SPX is overbought.  Chances are good that SPX continues going lower this coming week and tests of its D-DLT around 2360 and AUL around 2350.

Long-Term (weeks to months) Outlook


Longer term, chances are good that SPX continues to sell-off and test its AUL around 2340 sometime this coming week and then its W-DTL around 2310.

I think if the Congress enacts Trump tax plan, military spending and repeals ACA then we should see a significant rise in indices despite rising interest rates; however, amid current controversies and scandals surrounding the Trump Administration, chances are low that any of that comes to fruition.  Hence, chances of additional gains in indices are low.

My Plan

I am going to follow SGS and start buying SPY if SGS starts to uptick and closes above its ADL. If SGS continues to go lower and turns short, I would start opening short position in SPX by buying SH.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2017)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2016)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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