Saturday, August 26, 2017

SPX Very Likely Tests Critical Support

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of August 18, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS advanced last week but still closed below zero for the week, signaling more selling ahead. 



SPX closed above its W-DTL (13 W-EMA) but still below its ARL.  Chances are high that SPX sells off for the next couple of weeks to test support, initially at its PUL-3 and ASL around 2400, and then should that support fail, at its 50 W-SMA around 2300.

At this point, chances are high that the sell-off since SPX 2490 ends around SPX 2400.

My Plan

My plan is to open my second SDS position early next week should start to trade below support at SPX 2435 (last Thursday's low).


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Saturday, August 19, 2017

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT ... Selling Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of August 18, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS declined last week and closed below zero for the week.  SGS is now "SHORT". Chances are high that indices start to sell off aggressively for the next couple of weeks.



SPX closed below its W-DTL (13 W-EMA) for the week which is quite bearish.  Chances are high that SPX sells off for the next couple of weeks to test support, initially at its PUL-2 and ASL around 2370, and then should that support fail, at its 50 W-SMA around 2300. 

My Plan

Per my plan, I opened my first position of two in SDS last week.  My plan is to open my second SDS position when SPX rallies up to back tests its DTL.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, August 13, 2017

An Ugly Week Is Ahead

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of August 4, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Last week SGS accelerated its decline, closed blew the critical value of 50 for the week, and the lowest since the election.  SGS is now signaling more aggressive selling ahead. 


Last Thursday, SPX found support at its W-DTL (13 W-EMA).  Chances are high that support gets tested and fails early this coming week.  Should that happen, SPX would sell-off more to test supports at its ASL and PUL-2 somewhere between 2400 and 2375.

My Plan

Per my plan, I closed my long positions in SPY, SSO, and UPRO on Tuesday.

 I believe chances are high that SGS turns "SHORT" as of the close of this coming Friday. My plan is to open my first position of two in SDS early this coming week.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, August 6, 2017

SGS Market Timer Is Neutral

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of August 4, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Despite DJI reaching new all-time highs, the broader market declined with increasing number of new lows and decreasing number of new highs for both NYSE and NASDAQ.  SGS continued its decline last week and closed below its DTL for the week.  As of the close last Friday, SGS is "NEUTRAL". 


Last week DJI rallied while all other four major indices (SPX, NAZ, RUT, and DJT) declined. This type of divergence in an aging bull market is never a good sign.

The rally that started in early 2016 (from SPX 1810) is very likely has reached or about to reach its peak (2500 +/- 1%). Chances are good that SPX enters into a 5% trading range (2500 to 2350) for a couple of months until the shit show in DC ends one way or another.   

My Plan

I'm planning to close my long positions in SPY, SSO, and UPRO sometime this coming week.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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