Sunday, February 25, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday, February 23, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As expected, indices sold-off on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday this week but on Friday they bucked their downtrend with a big rally that nearly made them whole for the week.
Despite the impressive rally on Friday, as shown above, there is a very good chance that SPX sells-off to test its February 9 low.

SGS advanced higher for this week and on Friday its status changed from SHORT to NEUTRAL. 

For SPX, the likelihood of a sell-off to test its February 9 low (2532) is still substantially higher than rallying to a new all-time high. 


My Plan

SGS is NEUTRAL.  My plan is to close my SDS position sometime early next week.
Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, February 18, 2018

Forks In The Road Ahead

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
LONG as of the close of Friday, February 9, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Trading is about understanding and determining the probabilities that exist between 0% and 100% certainties.  A trader often runs  into forks in the trading road and has to determine which path to take by assessing the probability of success versus failure.

The forks in the trading road for SPX is shown above.   There is a high likelihood that SPX sells-off to test its recent low (2532) early next week.
SGS, despite advancing every day this week, closed below -50 on Friday.  That is bearish and signals more selling ahead by indices to test their recent lows.

SPX rallied every day this week and retraced back around 60% of its losses from its all-time high (2872) to its recent low (2532) two Fridays ago.  As of the close of Friday, SPX was trading above its daily and weekly DTL (13 EMA).  That is bullish but the fact that SPX penetrated so deep into its W-DTL line and traded below that for four days raises serious doubts about the integrity of the uptrend going forward.

At this point, there is a good chance that major indices sell-off next week to test their recent lows.  Should those lows fail with heavy volume, deteriorated breadth and internals, then major indices would sell-off a lot more.


My Plan

Per my plan I closed my long positions on Wednesday and Friday.  Should indices sell-off this coming Tuesday, my plan is to open my first of three short positions in SDS.

I will tweet next week as I open short positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, February 11, 2018

SGS Market Timer is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
LONG as of the close of Friday, February 9, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SPX broke through one support after another last week and finally bounced off of its 200 D-SMA on Friday.  Breadth and Internal data deteriorated, significantly signaling more selling ahead. 
SGS declined last week and by Friday it closed significantly below -50.  SGS status as of the close of last Friday is SHORT.
SPX found support at its 200 D-SMA and PUL-3 on Friday.  There is a good chance that the rally that started on Friday continues next week and SPX retraces back between 40% to 60% of its decline from all-time of 2872. 

My Plan

My plan is to close my long positions this coming week as SPX retraces back its decline.  Closing an open position with a loss is the most difficult skill to master in trading. A trader without that skill will never be a successful trader.  

 I will tweet next week as I close long positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, February 4, 2018

Is Selling Done?

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday, September 1, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

 There is a good chance that SPX sells off another 15 to 20 points tomorrow morning and tests the support around 2740.  After that, SPX very likely rallies to test key resistance around 2800.  How SPX behaves as it tests 2800 level would tell us if selling is done or there is more to come.
SGS declined significantly last week but it is still above 50 as of the close of Friday and hence its status is still long.  That means the probability of higher prices ahead for indices is considerably higher than the probability of lower prices.
SPX found support at its PUL-6 on Friday.  There is a good chance that, after an initial panic and margin call selling on Monday morning, we see SPX rallies to test its immediate resistance at 2800.  How SPX behaves on its way to 2800 and around 2800 would tell us if the selling is done and a rally to higher prices for indices has started. In that case, we should see SGS advanced higher on Monday.

My Plan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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