Sunday, March 25, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday March 23, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

The WH chaos goes on and  causes high market volatility.  Where and how the chaos ends is unpredictable but one thing is for sure, it won't end well for anyone or anything including financial markets.

SPX sold off sharply on Thursday and Friday last week and closed near its low for the week which was within around 2% of the low reached on Friday February 9.  There is a good chance that SPX is testing that low now and if successful, it would rally to test resistance at its TDL and PDL-1.  If testing of 2532 level fails, then SPX very likely would sell-off significantly more to around 2470.


SGS declined everyday last week to and ended up at -43.20 on Friday and changed its status from "LONG" to "NEUTRAL".  

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.


My Plan

Per my plan, I opened my second of 3 long positions in QQQ on Tuesday.  With SGS turning NEUTRAL, my plan is to close those two long positions sometime next week.
Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, March 18, 2018

Indices Are To Push Higher

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday, March 9, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

The chaos that is unleashed on daily basis by the White House is keeping indices from rallying strongly to challenge their all-time highs.  It seems the chaos presidency is not going to end anytime soon and the market is starting to ignore it all and does what it needs to do.

On Thursday and Friday last week, SPX hovered around its 50 D-SMA.  Despite lackluster performance later in the week, chances are high that we see SPX rally on the back of a dovish FOMC statement this coming Wednesday.  There is a well-formed bull flag (shown in blue) on SPX daily chart above. 

SGS advanced earlier in the week and declined on Thursday and Friday.  SGS is well above +50 and its status is still LONG. 

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.


My Plan

Per my plan, I opened my first of 3 long positions in QQQ on Wednesday.  My plan is to open the 2nd long position in QQQ sometime early this week.

 Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, March 11, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday, March 9, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Most major indices rallied strongly last week and closed well above their 50 D-SMA's.  SGS also closed above +50 on Friday and its status changed from SHORT to LONG.  All bullish.

On Friday, SPX opened above its 50 D-SMA and continued to rally right into the close.  As shown above, there is an good chance that SPX back-tests its 50 D-SMA sometime this week before heading higher to test its PDL-1. Should back-testing of 50 D-SMA or testing of PDL-1 fail, there is a chance that SPX tests trend line support around 2670 later this week or early next week.
SGS advanced higher than +50 on Friday and changed its status from SHORT to LONG. 

Supports and resistances for SPX are shown above.


My Plan

I didn't open any short positions last week.  With SGS being LONG now, my plan is to open my first of three position in QQQ sometime this week.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, March 4, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday, March 2, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Major indices sold-off around 2% last week. There is a good chance that selling continues until early to mid April, especially if Turmp chaos continues.


As shown above, there is an extremely high chance that SPX tests its February 9 low (2532) sometime in the next 10 trading days. There is also a high chance that the support around 200 D-SMA (2565) fails and SPX continues its sell-off to around 2200 between now and early to mid April. That would be a garden variety bull market correction of 20% to 25%.

SGS advanced higher early last week but then it declined below -50 by Friday and changed its status from NEUTRAL to SHORT. 

For SPX, the likelihood of a sell-off to test its February 9 low (2532) is extremely high.


My Plan

Per my plan, I closed my only SDS position on Wednesday and of course within a few minutes indices started to sell-off :(.

SGS is SHORT and my plan is to open my first of 3 positions in SDS early Monday AM.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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