Hello President Pence

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday April 13, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Earlier this month I wrote that financial markets would soon start to ignore Trump and the chaos he unleashes on daily basis.  I think we are there now.  Not only markets are ignoring him and his tweets but they're also predicting his resignation sometime in the next 12 months. 

The correction that started in late January was over in terms of its price (340 points or 12% for SPX) on February 9  but it still continued and corrected in time until April 2 as indices tested their February lows with bullish divergences in volume, technical  indicators, breadth, and internals.  Chances are high that indices are now going higher on the back of a new bull leg that started on April 2. For SPX, it's very likely that we see a rally until early summer as SPX challenges and takes out its all-time high (2872).

After advancing every day two weeks ago, SGS declined every day last week expect on Friday when, despite neutral indices, SGS advanced significantly.  That is bullish and signals that higher prices are ahead for indices.. 

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.

My Plan

I'm still planning to open my third and final long position in QQQ sometime this coming week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org
#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Indices Will Push Higher Unless #OrangeSwan

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday April 13, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

The financial meltdown of 2008 is commonly referred to as a "black swan event". An orange swan event, would refer to a major but unforeseen crisis, including a significant correction of major indices, due directly or indirectly to an action taken by Donald Trump. For example, if Trump orders an attack on a Middle Eastern country that could easily escalate into a direct confrontation between American and Russian forces, causing oil, gold and interest rates spike dramatically higher over night. I hope not.

Barring an orange swan event, chances are good that indices push higher between now and early summer to challenge their recent all-time highs and much higher.

After rallying strongly earlier in the week, SPX sold off on Thursday and Friday. By the end of the week, SPX closed below its 50 D-SMA. Chances are good; however, that SPX rallies this coming week to test important resistance levels at its ARL, TDL and even PDL-1. 

SGS advanced significantly last week and it is close now to change its status from "NEUTRAL" to "LONG".  SGS is signaling higher prices ahead.

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.

My Plan

I'm still planning to open my third and final long position in QQQ sometime this coming week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org
#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is Neutral

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday April 13, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Sorry for a very brief blog post this weekend.  I had too much going on this weekend.

My Plan

My plan is stay with my long QQQ positions.  SGS is now NEUTRAL.  My plan to do my 3rd and final buy once SGS crosses zero.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Indices Are At Or Near A Bottom

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday March 29, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

The chaos that is unleashed on daily basis by Trump is keeping indices from rallying strongly to challenge their all-time highs.  It seems the chaos presidency is not going to end anytime soon and the market is starting to ignore it all and does what it needs to do.

On Friday, SPX successfully tested its 200 D-SMA.  Despite a nearly 3% sell-off by major indices, panic selling of indiviual issues was quite limited.  That is highly bullish and signals that indices are at or very close to a bottom. 

There is a good chance that SPX rallies on the back of good Q1 earnings and forecasts to test its 50 D-SMA and PDL-1 in the next couple of weeks.

SGS advanced significantly on Friday despite a nearly 3% sell-off by major indices.  That divergence is highly bullish and signals that higher prices are head.

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.

My Plan

My plan is stay with my long QQQ positions.  A close below 200 D-SMA on a weekly basis would be a game changer.  In that case, I would close long positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday March 29, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Except for Thursday, SGS declined everyday last week to and ended below -50.  SGS status changed from "NEUTRAL" to "SHORT".  

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.

My Plan

My plan to close my QQQ long position as SPX back-tests its W-DTL (13 W-EMA) around 2680.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.