SGS Market Timer Status: SHORT
SHORT as of the close of Friday Oct 5, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must
SGS advanced last week but it is still in SHORT territory, signalling that there is a good chance that the sell-off that started last Thursday continues.
Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above. Last Friday, SPX 200 D-SMA was tested and it held. There is a good chance that the 200 D-SMA (2763) is breached and SPX trades and closes below it. Should that happen sometime early this week, SPX very likely sells-off to test its recent low (2603) later in the week.
SPX: S&P 500 Index SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index DTL: Dynamic Trend Line
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
SHORT as of the close of Friday Oct 5, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must
Last week, I outlined three scenarios for the mid-term election outcome and the most likely scenario (Scenario A Bad: Reps lose the House, keep the Senate but lose most of state gubernatorial and local races) occurred. Initially indices rallied on the back of incorrect assessment that the election was a big victory for Republicans but later in the week after the dust settled, it became clear that the big winner was the Democratic Party.
I believe the recent sell-off is a warning of an event that could send indices much lower. I don't know what that event might be but my best guess is that it would be a political event and very likely related to Trump.
I believe the recent sell-off is a warning of an event that could send indices much lower. I don't know what that event might be but my best guess is that it would be a political event and very likely related to Trump.
My Plan
No change since last week. I'm still expecting a panic selling event in very near future. My plan is to close my long SPXU positions into that panic.
Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)
No change since last week. I'm still expecting a panic selling event in very near future. My plan is to close my long SPXU positions into that panic.
Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)
Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)
SPX: S&P 500 Index SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index DTL: Dynamic Trend Line
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance TLS: Trend Line Support
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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