No Change, SGS Timer Is Still NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL (overbought) as of the close of Friday Nov 27, 2020
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Thursday (12/24), the value of SGS was calculated to be +504.  That is higher than +500, signaling indices are very likely overbought.  The status of SGS remains NEUTRAL (overbought).

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

No change, for now my plan is to stay in cash  for now.  

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Indices Are Still Overbought

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL (overbought) as of the close of Friday Nov 27, 2020
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (12/18), the value of SGS was calculated to be +849.  That is higher than +500, signaling indices are very likely overbought.  The status of SGS remains NEUTRAL (overbought).

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

No change, for now my plan is to stay in cash.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Indices Continue To Remain Overbought

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL (overbought) as of the close of Friday Nov 27, 2020
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (12/11), the value of SGS was calculated to be +502.  That is higher than +500, signaling indices are very likely overbought.  The status of SGS remains NEUTRAL (overbought).

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

I closed all my long positions on 12/1.  For now my plan is to stay in cash.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Indices Remain Overbought

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL (overbought) as of the close of Friday Nov 27, 2020
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (12/4), the value of SGS was calculated to be +892.  That is higher than +500, signaling indices are very likely overbought.  The status of SGS remains NEUTRAL (overbought).

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

Per plan I closed all my long positions last Tuesday.  For now my plan is to stay in cash.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL (overbought) as of the close of Friday Nov 27, 2020
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (11/27), the value of SGS was calculated to be +611.  That is higher than +500, signaling indices are very likely overbought.  The status of SGS changed from LONG to NEUTRAL.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

With SGS status changing from LONG to NEUTRAL, my plan is to close all my long positions sometime early this coming week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Cementing "Trump Won, Dems Cheated"

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Nov 6, 2020
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

On January 20, 2021, Biden will be the next POTUS.   What Trump is doing now, after losing the election, is not any different from what he has done throughout his life.  He is repeating a lie again and again until it's cemented as the truth in the minds of many.  That has been and will continue to be Trump's MO. 

Indices will continue to slowly grind higher until senate seat runoffs in Georgia are decided on January 5.  If Dems manage to win both seats (very likely, imo), then indices would explode higher in anticipation of mother of all fiscal stimuli by Biden and Dems.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (11/20), the value of SGS was calculated to be +324.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

No change, I'm 100% long for now.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A New Fiscal Stimulus In 2020?

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Nov 6, 2020
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths mounts, there is a chance that a fiscal stimulus package is passed by Congress and signed by Trump sometime before the end of the year.  In that case, indices would surely rally into the new year.  Without any stimulus, there is a good chance that indices go sideways and correct in time until January 5 when Georgia senate seats are decided.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (11/13), the value of SGS was calculated to be +183.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

Last week I closed my long positions in GLD and SLV.  I opened two new long positions in GM and FDX.  My plan is to stay 100% long for now.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Rally Continues As Uncertainty Is Lifted

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Nov 6, 2020
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Now that the 2020 election is over and Biden will be the new POTUS on January 20, 20201, indices very likely continue their rally to new all-time highs.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (11/6), the value of SGS was calculated to be +360.  The status of SGS changed from SHORT to LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

Anticipating SGS change of status from SHORT to LONG, per my plan, on Thursday I opened new long positions in seven stocks. I am 100% in.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Mother Of All Critical Weeks Is Coming Up

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Oct 30, 2020
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Today starts one of the most critical weeks in the history of our country.  Below is what Market expects to happen this Tuesday:

• A Biden Decisive Win (>95%) - Indices might sell off initially, but knowing that Biden is going to have to come in with mother of all fiscal stimuli ($5 to $10 Trillion), all asset classes (hard and soft) would go higher in 2021. The reason is that all assets would have to be priced with a devalued dollar; therefore, prices would have to be larger numbers.
  
  
• A Close And Contested Election (<4%) - Similar to what happened in November 2000 to January 2001, there would be a blood bath in the US and global equity markets until the US Supreme Court decides who the POTUS is.
  
  
• A Trump Decisive Win (<1%) - No idea how markets would react.

SGS Market Timer

As of close of last Friday, the value of SGS was calculated to be -143.  The status of SGS changed from LONG to SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

Indices sold off last week and continued to go lower on Friday.  SGS is SHORT now and my plan is to stay with my positions in GLD, SLV, Bitcoin (30%), and cash (70%) until election is over.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

It's "Deal"

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 9, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Trump privately told donors that it would be "very tough" for GOP to hold the Senate.  If  what the Washington Post reporting is true, then my guess is that GOP and Trump have very likely reached a deal.

SGS Market Timer

As of close of last Friday, the value of SGS remained unchanged at +105.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

There is a good chance that we see a sell-off ahead of the election sometime this week.  My plan is to put 1/2 of my cash to work and buy the following seven stocks:

ZM, ALGN, TSLA, FDX, MELI, GM, and DOCU

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Deal Or No Deal

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 9, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Sometime between now and the presidential election on Nov 3, if  and when it dawns on Trump that he is about to lose to Biden in a historic landslide, Trump would be looking for a deal.  My guess is that he would try to negotiate a deal with Pence and Republican leaders in the Senate, namely McConnell, Graham, and Grassley.  Below are my guesses for a deal or no deal:

Deal:

• Trump continues with his presidential campaign
• Trump rallies supporters to vote for Republican candidates
• Trump resigns shortly after the election
• Pence is sworn in as the POTUS
• Pence issues full pardons for Trump and his family

No Deal:

• Trump threatens to resign sometime before the election
• Trump threatens to tell his base to stay home and not vote
• Trump threatens to upend Coney-Barret appointment to the SC

There is very little or no chance if a deal can reached, in my opinion, simply because Trump would demand that his deal with Pence and Republicans has to be in writing.  But obviously any agreement reached by Trump, Pence, and Republicans can be only verbal, similar to the agreement reached by Nixon, Ford, and Republicans in 1974.

SGS Market Timer

As of close of last Friday, the value of SGS remained unchanged at +235.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

Per my plan, I opened a new long position (another 5%) in GLD.  For now, I'm staying on the sideline with my remaining 70% in cash.  

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 9, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of close of last Friday, the value of SGS is +235.  The status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to LONG.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

Despite SGS being long, for now I'm staying on the sideline with 75% in cash.  I still have long positions  (25% of total capital) in GLD, SLV, and GBTC.  Also thinking about putting more money into GLD.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.