As promised in my last post, I'm doing a new post because I think there is a good chance that indices start a sell-off in the next couple of weeks to retrace back between 40% to 60% of their gains since their March lows.
Four of seven "FANGMAN" stocks (FB, AMZN, NLFX, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, and NVDA) are reporting their Q2 earnings and outlook on Wednesday and Thursday. Last week MSFT and NFLX reported and sold off. NVDA is to report in late August. If FB, AMZN, GOOGL, and AAPL follow MSFT and NFLX, there is a good chance that NDX sells off significantly.
Last Thursday and Friday SPX sold off and closed right on its uptrend line (TUL) that has supported its rally since its March low (2191). There is a good chance that SPX trades sideways this week in a tight range (green circle). How SPX breaks out of its trading range this week is critical and would indicate the high likelihood that SPX continuing to trade in that direction. In other words, if SPX breaks out of the green circle to the up side, it would continue advancing to challenge its recent highs and its all-time high (3393). If SPX breaks out of the green circle to the down side; however, it would very likely continue its sell-off to test its 50 and 200 D-SMA's.
SGS is still long but starting to head lower, bearish.
Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above. If a sell-off starts this week, there would be a good chance that, in the next couple of months, SPX retraces back between 40% to 60% of its gain since its March low (2191).
My Plan
I'm in cash but planning to buy GLD (20% of capital) sometime this week. I will send a tweet out when I'm about to do it.
SPX: S&P 500 Index SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index DTL: Dynamic Trend Line
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index DTL: Dynamic Trend Line
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance TLS: Trend Line Support
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Posts
