Cash Becomes Trash

 SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 

LONG as of the close of Friday May 22, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Last Thursday, Jerome Powell effectively said that there was no limit to the Fed's balance sheet.   In other words, the Fed will pump trillions and trillions more into the economy, i.e. stock market, as asset prices rise and cash becomes trash. 

As shown on  the chart above, SGS is long and now heading higher after last week strong and broad rally. 

I am also working to improve SGS timer by using the same timing algorithm used for sgs-st.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.

My Plan

I am planning to watch indices and now looking for a dip to open new long positions.  I am planning to put 25% of cash into SPY sometime next week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Hungry Bears Are Roaming Around

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 

LONG as of the close of Friday May 22, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As shown on the chart above, SPX ground higher last week but failed to overcome resistance at and around its previous all-time high (3393).  That's bearish and signals a high likelihood of sizable selling ahead.

As shown on  the chart above, SGS is long but heading lower, bearish. Also, SGS DTL (red) crossed its 20 D-SMA (blue), signaling a high likelihood of sizable selling ahead. 

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.

My Plan

Per my plan, last Wednesday I opened a new long position in QQQ with remaining 15% cash, but on Friday after seeing significant bearish divergence in market breadth and internal for two days in a row, I closed my long positions in SPY, IWM, and QQQ.  My positions in GLD, SLV, and GBTC (bitcoin ETF) are still open.

Going forward, I am planning to watch indices for a few days and then decide how to deploy my cash (75% of total capital).

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Critical Week Is Ahead

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday May 22, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As shown on the chart above, SPX failed last week to overcome its all-time (3393) resistance.  That is bearish and increases the odds of major indices entering into an extended period of consolidation or correction.  

How SPX trades this week is critical.  If SPX sells off and closes below its lower boundary line of its price channel, then further selling to test its 50 D-SMA and 200 D-SMA would be more likely.  If SPX rallies pass its all-time high and the upper boundary of its smaller price channel however, then a move higher to test the upper boundary of its larger price channel (around 3700 sometime next month) would be more likely.

As shown on  the chart above, SGS is long but heading lower, bearish.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.

My Plan

Last Monday I closed my long position in QQQ, and per my plan, I opened new positions in SPY, IWM, GLD, and SLV on Tuesday.  This week, I'm letting the market make the first move.  If indices head higher, then I would open a new long position in QQQ (remaining 15%).  Otherwise, I would very likely close my IWM and SPY long positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Channel Within Channel

 SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday May 22, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SPX is trading in a tight rising channel which is inside of a wider rising channel.  There is a good chance that SPX breaks out its smaller trading channel and moves higher to test the upper line of its wider trading channel around 3600 sometime this month.

SGS is long and heading higher, bullish.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.

My Plan

Per my plan, I opened tow new positions in SPY and QQQ  on Tuesday.  I'm planning to open new long positions in SLV (5%), IWM (20%), and SPY (20%) sometime early this coming week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Indices Are Coiled Up To Strike Higher Or Lower

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 

LONG as of the close of Friday May 22, 2020

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Four of seven "FANGMAN" stocks (FB, AMZN, NLFX, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, and NVDA) reported last Thursday after close, but the market response on Friday was generally disappointing. If a significant sell-off starts, FANGMAN and other NDX constituents would correct significantly.

For the last two weeks, SPX has been trading in an 80 point range (3200 - 3280).  SPX has coiled up and it's ready to strike out of its trading range (green rectangle) in either up or down direction. 

SGS is long but starting to head lower, bearish.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  

My Plan

Per my plan, I opened a small long position in GLD last Friday.  I also opened an even smaller long position in GBTC. 

I don't know which way indices are going to break out of their recent trading range.  Best is to let them make their first move and then follow.   My plan is to buy either QQQ or PSQ depending on the direction of indices out of their recent trading range.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.