Chaos Is Coming Sooner Than Expected

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday Sep 25, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

The widely expected election chaos will not happen after the election while ballots are being counted because there is a good chance that the Democratic win will be massive and historic.  My guess is that sometime in early hours of November 4, the Republican rank-and-file will concede.  They will also call on Trump to honor a peaceful transition of power that has been a tradition and a norm for 220 years in our country.  

After all ballots are counted, my guess (below) is  that the 2020 election will be recorded as a historic win for Democrats and a devastating loss for Republicans.

• Electoral College Vote: Biden 400+ / Trump 130-
• Popular Vote: Biden 60+% / Trump 40-%
• US Senate: 52+ Democrats / 48- Republicans
• US House: Democrats will add 5+ more seats
• Trump resignation prior to Jan 20, 2021 is likely
  

The chaos, however, will start shortly after the first presidential debate and will continue until the election day, November 3, 2020.  There is a good chance that indices will suffer during this period and give back between 40% to 60% of their gains since their March lows.

SGS Market Timer

As of close of last Friday, the value of SGS is -26.  SGS status changed from LONG back to NEUTRAL.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  There is a good chance that the rally that started last Friday continues early this week and SPX retraces back between 40% to 60% of its recent losses.  After that, chances of indices resuming their sell-off are high.

My Plan

With SGS turning NEUTRAL, my plan is to close my SPY and QQQ long positions sometime early this week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

 SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Sep 18, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

There is a good chance that the sell-off that started earlier this month has run its course.  I expect indices to head higher this week.

SGS Market Timer

As of close of Friday, the value of SGS is +178.  SGS status changed from  NEUTRAL to LONG.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.

My Plan

No change since last week, I'm watching indices and letting them lead.  I will adjust my positions as needed.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A Critical Week Is Ahead

 SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 

NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday Sep 4, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Indices seem to be waiting for a catalyst to push them higher or take them lower.  At this point, chances of a catalyst to take indices lower are high.

SGS Market Timer

As of close of Friday, the value of SGS is +48.  SGS status remains NEUTRAL.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.

My Plan

I'm watching indices and letting them lead.  I will adjust my positions as needed.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday Sep 4, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

There is a good chance that the US presidential election ends up in the mother of all political chaos. Last week's sell-off was a tamed sample of the chaos that could be coming our way in October or November. A historic and unprecedented chaos that could last for weeks, if not months, during which indices would go lower and lower everyday.

As show on chart above,  SPX  could give back between 40% to 50% of gains since its March low.  One of the best ways to trade that very likely sell-off is using UE-BWB put option spreads.  Sometime this week, I'm planning to open those spreads for November 20 expiration of QQQ, SPY, and IWM puts.  If you're interested in details of those spreads, please send me an email.

Changes to SGS Market Timer

Per my plan, I changed the algorithm for calculating the value of SGS to the algorithm used for calculating the value for sgs-st.  Going forward,  I'm planing to publish only the value of SGS.  The value of SGS, calculated using Fridays internal data, dictates the status of SGS as summarized in table below:

• SGS is   NEUTRAL  (overbought) when its value greater than +500 
• SGS is  LONG  when its value > +50 but less than +500
• SGS is   NEUTRAL  when its value is less than +50 but greater than -50
• SGS is  SHORT  when its value is less than -50 but  greater than -500
• SGS is   NEUTRAL  (oversold) when its value less than -500

As of close of last Friday, the value of SGS was -49 and SGS changed its status from LONG to NEUTRAL.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.

My Plan

Per my plan I opened a new long position in SPY last Thursday. If sell-off that started on Thursday continues, I would close my SPY position.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.