Sunday, October 18, 2020

Deal Or No Deal

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 9, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Sometime between now and the presidential election on Nov 3, if  and when it dawns on Trump that he is about to lose to Biden in a historic landslide, Trump would be looking for a deal.  My guess is that he would try to negotiate a deal with Pence and Republican leaders in the Senate, namely McConnell, Graham, and Grassley.  Below are my guesses for a deal or no deal:

Deal:
  • Trump continues with his presidential campaign
  • Trump rallies supporters to vote for Republican candidates
  • Trump resigns shortly after the election
  • Pence is sworn in as the POTUS
  • Pence issues full pardons for Trump and his family
No Deal:
  • Trump threatens to resign sometime before the election
  • Trump threatens to tell his base to stay home and not vote
  • Trump threatens to upend Coney-Barret appointment to the SC
There is very little or no chance if a deal can reached, in my opinion, simply because Trump would demand that his deal with Pence and Republicans has to be in writing.  But obviously any agreement reached by Trump, Pence, and Republicans can be only verbal, similar to the agreement reached by Nixon, Ford, and Republicans in 1974.


SGS Market Timer

As of close of last Friday, the value of SGS remained unchanged at +235.  The status of SGS remains LONG.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  


My Plan

Per my plan, I opened a new long position (another 5%) in GLD.  For now, I'm staying on the sideline with my remaining 70% in cash.  



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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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