SGS Market Timer Status: SHORT
SHORT as of the close of Friday November 19, 2021
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must
The new Coronavirus variant, Omicron, is "highly" contagious but early data indicates that vaccinated individuals who were infected show mild symptoms and recover quickly. More people are now choosing to get vaccinated and that is bullish because chances of an economic shutdown substantially diminishes as more people are vaccinated.
Selling due to Omicron was done on Fri 11/26, but a new wave of selling started as Powell came in super hawkish before the congress last Wednesday and another regional president doubled down on his hawkishness last Friday. Selling very likely continues until the Fed signals a more dovish plan on tapering, quantitative tightening, and the Fed Funds Rate. In the past, those dovish signals didn't come in until indices had corrected at least 20% from their highs.
Selling due to Omicron was done on Fri 11/26, but a new wave of selling started as Powell came in super hawkish before the congress last Wednesday and another regional president doubled down on his hawkishness last Friday. Selling very likely continues until the Fed signals a more dovish plan on tapering, quantitative tightening, and the Fed Funds Rate. In the past, those dovish signals didn't come in until indices had corrected at least 20% from their highs.
SGS Market Timer
As of the close of last Friday (12/3), the value of SGS was calculated to be -987 and the status of SGS remains SHORT.
S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above. Last week SPX successfully tested its PUL-2 last Friday, a close below that line would signal significant selling ahead.
My Plan
In light of the new hawkish stand of the Fed, I believe selling continues. My plan is to close my long positions (except two small crypto positions) sometime this week.
SPX: S&P 500 Index SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index DTL: Dynamic Trend Line
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index DTL: Dynamic Trend Line
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance TLS: Trend Line Support
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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