The Bottom Is Very Likely In

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday January 7, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (1/28), the value of SGS was calculated to be -1870 and the status of SGS remains SHORT.  Last Monday, SGS put in a value of -2821 and signaled that the bottom for the current correction was very likely in.  For the next following three days, the value of SGS increased but on Friday it dropped to -1870 despite a strong rally.   That was disappointing and signaled that SPX could sell off again to test last Monday's low (4222) sometime this week.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  SPX is still trading below its PUL-2 and that is bearish.  

My Plan

My target of SPX 4225 for the correction was reached last Monday and I closed my short position.  Except for two small crypto positions, I am in cash for now. 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Short-Term, Indices Are Oversold

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday January 7, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

IBM, MMM, MSFT, TSLA, BA, LRCX, NOW, MA, AAPL, SWKS, TEAM, and V are to report this week.  How the market reacts to earnings reports and forecast by these companies will be very telling as far as if the selling is done or not.  Shorter-term, indices are oversold and a short-covering/dip buying  rally is very likely early this week.

Besides earnings reports by important companies, there is also FOMC announcement on Wednesday, followed by Powell's news conference.  There is a good chance that the Fed tones down its hawkish stand on tapering and interest rate hikes due to what is happening with the Omicron variant.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (1/21), the value of SGS was calculated to be -2002 and the status of SGS remains SHORT.  Looking back to value of SGS during previous market corrections since 2009, except for the Covid flash crash of March 2020, SGS levels below -2000 marked the beginning of the bottoming process for indices.  In those previous corrections, 2018 Q4 for example, SGS values of -2500 to -3000 marked the bottom for those corrections. 

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  SPX is now trading below its PUL-2 and that is bearish.  Next support levels for SPX are 4350 and 4225.  There is a good chance that SPX finds the bottom for current correction around 4225.

My Plan

Per my plan last Wednesday I opened a position in SDS.  My plan is to add to that position early this week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.    

The Big Tech Will Make Or Break Break Indices

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday January 7, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Starting last week, companies have been reporting their 2021 fourth quarter earnings and their forecast for 2022.  How Market reacts to those reports will set the direction and the pace for major indices.  This week NFLX and GS report; next week AAPL, TSLA, LRCX, MSFT, and MA report. 

As shown on the chart above, NDX sold off two weeks ago but found support at it PUL-2 which had been shouldering its gains since late March 2020.  Last week, NDX opened substantially below its PUL-2 on Monday and recovered most of its losses but still closed below its PUL-2 for the week.  There is a good chance that selling resumes this week and NDX drops to test TLS and its 50 W-SMA around 14,750. 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (1/14), the value of SGS was calculated to be -790 and the status of SGS remains SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  Last Monday SPX sold off and found support at its PUL-2 and closed above it for the week.  Should selling resume in SPX this week, there would be a good chance SPX drops below its PUL-2, tests its TLS and 50 W-SMA around 4400.

My Plan

Per my plan last Monday I opened a position in SPXS but later in the week as SGS value improved I closed my position.  I'm in cash except for two small crypto positions.  I am watching earnings report by NFLX and GS this week. With SGS being SHORT, my plan is to open new positions in SPXS, TZA, and SQQQ (10% of total capital each) sometime this week,

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.   

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday January 7, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Last week, the yield on 10-Year Note, shown above, broke through its ARL and headed toward 2%.  That's bearish for indices, especially NDX.

NDX sold off last week and closed right on its PUL-2 which has been shouldering its gain since the Covid low in March of 2020.  A weekly close below PUL-2 would be quite bearish for NDX and the market.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (1/7), the value of SGS was calculated to be -282 and the status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

I'm in cash except for two small crypto positions.  With SGS being SHORT now, my plan is to open new positions in SPXS, TZA, and SQQQ (10% of total capital each) sometime this week,

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

SGS Market Timer Remains NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Thursday December 23, 2021
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Thursday (12/31), the value of SGS was calculated to be +37 and the status of SGS remains NEUTRAL.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  

My Plan

I'm in cash and planning to stay in cash this week.

Happy New Year

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.