Rollercoaster Ride To Nowhere Continues

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday March 10, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Since late 2022, indices have been on a rollercoaster ride to nowhere.  Chances are good that the rollercoaster ride to nowhere continues until 2023 Q1 earrings and forecasts for big cap. companies are out starting in the middle of next month.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/24), the value of SGS was calculated to be -481.  The status of SGS remains SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

I'm 95% in cash and my plan is to stay in cash for now and see how the current banking crisis settles.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.                  

Support At SPX 3500 Holds

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday March 10, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

According to an analysis by Economic Policy Institute, price hikes by corporations were the largest contributing factor (50%) to year over year inflation in 2022.  Other contributing factors were labor (20%) and pandemic related supply shortages (30%).  So if price gouging and greed by big corporations is at the heart of the current inflation, then how raising interest rates is to bring inflation down?  At best it would reduce labor costs for companies as workers lose their jobs and have to settle for the same jobs at lower wages.  Maybe that is precisely the Fed's aim and their plan to bring the labor inflation down to "2%" by slowing down the economy and increasing unemployment.  It seems the Fed couldn't care less about how much more we're paying for gas, eggs, meat, etc. all due to price gouging by companies.

Regardless of how the Fed manages to land the economy, corporations via price gouging will continue to post record profits in 2023.  Equity prices for major companies will go higher and indices will turn and start to rally, increasing the likelihood that  the support at SPX 3500 holds this year.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/17), the value of SGS was calculated to be -491.  The status of SGS remains SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

Per my plan I closed all my long positions (except for the two severely underwater and luckily small crypto positions) last Friday.  My plan is to stay in cash for now and see how the current banking crisis settles.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.                 

Alarms Are Ringing

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday March 10, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Alarms are ringing loudly this weekend in the Federal Reserve building in Washington DC as the Fed wonders if the failure of Silicon Valley Bank is the tip of an iceberg of small bank failures across the county.  The Fed's own economics are warning stock and real estate prices could tumble significantly   The Fed is holding an emergency meeting tomorrow. 

At this point, there is a good chance that the Fed announces a 25 BPS rate hike and not a 50 BPS rate hike in the next FOMC meeting on March 22.   Also, the Fed might decide, during their emergency meeting tomorrow, to suspend their QT program or to reduce its size substantially. 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/10), the value of SGS was calculated to be -555.  The status of SGS changed from LONG to SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  Indices are oversold short-term and there is a good chance that we see a short-covering rally early this week.

My Plan

Per my plan I opened a new long position in SMH last Monday.  Now with SGS turning SHORT, my plan is to close my long positions and open a position in SDS sometime early this week. 

 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.                

Higher Interest Rates Are Baked-in

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday March 3, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Last week indices rallied despite rising interest rates across the entire debt spectrum. That is bullish and signals that higher interest rates are "baked-in" now, and more importantly, the Fed is limited as to how far they could possibly raise short-term rates.  Currently the market estimates that limit ("terminal rate") to be around 5.5% and that is also baked into equity markets.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/3), the value of SGS was calculated to be +82.  The status of SGS changed from SHORT to LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  

My Plan

I kept my long positions and planning to put my remaining cash into SMH sometime this week.

 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.