Sunday, April 7, 2024

Forecasts & Geopolitics

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (4/5), the value of SGS was calculated to be +161 and the status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  Two important things are happening at the same time this week:

  1. Companies start to report their Q1 earnings and more importantly their outlook and forecasts for the rest of the year.

  2. Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine could escalate significantly and turn from isolated regional conflicts into more international conflicts with direct involvement of the West.  That would send Oil to $150 to $200 a barrel over night and crash equity markets across the globe.  What indices do between now and November will be very telling as far as who would win the election.  A multi-month significant selling (greater than 15%) would signal Trump as the next POTUS, otherwise it would be Biden. 

My Plan

I'm 95% in cash and collecting around 5% in interest.  For now I have no plan to open any new long or short positions.


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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

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